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Tim

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The problem of failure rate estimation is considered in the light of data acquired from the ATV reporting system. A number of different models for preventive maintenance are discussed which make the failure rate identifiable, as are more general bounding methods which do not r ...

This chapter sets the background for when, and discusses the contexts in which, eliciting expert judgements is paramount. The way judgements are elicited and aggregated plays an essential part in distinguishing structured/formal elicitation protocols from informal ones. We emp ...

Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance

Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods

The increase of multidrug resistance and resistance to last-line antibiotics is a major global public health threat. Although surveillance programs provide useful current and historical information on the scale of the problem, the future emergence and spread of antibiotic resista ...