The risk of coastal storm flooding is deteriorating under global warming, especially for the heavily urbanized deltaic cities, like Shanghai. The Nature-Based Flood Defense (NBFD), as an eco-friendly design alternative for hard infrastructure against coastal flooding, is gaining attention. Nevertheless, the vulnerability of saltmarsh due to the biological instability, resulting in the uncertainties on coastal protection, is considered the bottleneck challenge that hinders the broad application of the NBFD concept. We argue that except for direct wave attenuations by the above-ground vegetation during storms, the gradual sediment trapping and consolidating during the non-storm period is a more crucial function of coastal saltmarsh, which mitigates storm waves by forming a broader and higher intertidal morphology. This benefit is an important value of saltmarsh-based coastal protection but is largely neglected in many NBFD studies. Taking Chongming Dongtan Shoal (CDS) as a case study, we demonstrated that over 2/3th wave attenuation during storms is contributed by the saltmarsh morphology, and less than 1/3th is from the saltmarsh vegetation. The relative contribution of the saltmarsh morphology on wave mitigation is even enhanced under the increasing storm grades from 100 yrs. to 5000 yrs. return levels. To promote this idea for broader application, the cost-benefit analysis of three artificial NBFD solutions (e.g., submerged breakwater, timber piles, and sand nourishment) are compared. We identified an optimal measure of the submerged breakwater for CDS, which minimizes the ecological impact and maximizes the cost-benefit. Moreover, the wave-free zone behind the breakwater increases the chance of vegetation establishment, helps suspended sediment trapping, hence fostering a beneficent cycle for saltmarsh restoration. In summary, ignoring the contribution of saltmarsh morphology on wave attenuation largely underestimated the benefits of vegetation-based coastal protection, which should be greatly emphasized to provide a solid basis for developing NBFD.

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With climate change and rising sea levels, the coastal zone’s flood risk is deteriorating. Previous researches have shown a gradually degrading capacity of traditional hard engineering structures (e.g., seawall, dikes) on flood mitigation due to problems such as land subsidence and insufficient maintenance. To remedy the defects, the “building with nature concept” for coastal protection with saltmarshes was examined by combining field measurements and numerical simulations. The advantages of saltmarsh over traditional seawall on flood protection was demonstrated from the perspective of both flood area mitigation and economic gain, based on scenario simulations. Results show that tidal wetlands are essential in mitigating significant wave heights (H_s) and current velocities even during storm conditions. The storm wave and current velocity reduction ratio (RR_w and RR_c) by saltmarshes on Chongming Dongtan Shoal (CMDS) during Typhoon 9711 is approximately 11% and 51%, respectively. The wave and current mitigation by Scirpus mariqueter are more efficient than Spartina alterniflora and Phragmites australis during measurements in 2010, which were approximately 0.3 m and 0.2 m/s, 0.125 m and 0.155 m/s, 0.086 m and 0.128 m/s per kilometer width, respectively. The summer saltmarsh area 54.2 km² on CMDS protects approximately 32 km² land area behind the seawall from being flooded, equivalent to the seawall heightening of approximately 0.42 m on equivalent flood mitigation. The performance of cost-and-benefit analysis shows a relatively higher (by 3%–7%) net present value (NPV) and a higher (by 1.5 times) benefit-cost ratio (BC) of nature-based solution (i.e., saltmarsh restoration) compared with traditional hard engineering solution (i.e., seawall construction). Thus, building seawall with nature, such as a hybrid flood protection measure, should be implemented in the future coastal redesign and maintenance.

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A better understanding of how tidal-flat reclamation changes the flood hazard is critical for climate-proofing coastal flood defense design of heavily urbanized areas. Since the 1950s, large-scale reclamation has been performed along the Shanghai coast, China, to fulfill the land demands of city expansion. We now show that the loss of tidal flats may have resulted in harmful impacts of coastal storm flooding. Using the foreshore profiles measured before and after reclamation (i.e., wide vs. narrow tidal flat), we determined the long-term changes in flood risk using a numerical model that combines extreme tidal level and wave overtopping analysis. Results show that wide tidal flats in front of a seawall provide efficient wave damping even during extreme water levels. Reclamation of these tidal flats substantially increased wave heights and correspondingly reduced the return period of a specific storm. As a result, estimates of overtopping are aggravated by more than 80% for the varying return periods examined. It is concluded that the disasters of coastal flooding after the 1997 tidal-flat reclamation in Hangzhou Bay, China are a consequence of both anthropogenic and natural activities. Moreover, our model calculations provide an equation describing the equivalent dike height needed to compensate for the loss of every km tidal flat of a certain elevation, and vice versa. For example, for every km of tidal flat ranging from high marsh to bare tidal flat that is being regained, the dike can be lowered by 0.84 m–0.67 m, when designing for a 1 in 200 years storm event. Overall, we suggest that wide tidal flats are ideally restored in front of dikes, and that when tidal areas are reclaimed, the seawall height is raised as part of the intertidal reclamation procedure. Using such an equivalent protection standard is relevant to designing hybrid flood defense system worldwide.

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Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%–1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the ‘hard’ flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the ‘soft’ strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A ‘hybrid’ strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future.

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Green infrastructure (GI) plays a fundamental role in achieving urban pluvial flood management, mitigating urban heat island effect, and improving living suitability. Residents' participation is the main driving force of GI implementation. Based on semi-structured interviews, GIS spatial analysis, and multiple regression, we investigated residents' willingness to participate in the implementation of GI in public and private space and identified the influence factors in Shanghai, China. The results show that, compared with private space, residents prefer to implement GI in public space, where they have different preferences of GI measures. On urban scale, residents' willingness to participate in the implementation of GI in private space is characterized as "high in the inner city, low in the suburban areas", while the spatial difference is insignificant for public space. In addition, the factors affecting residents' willingness to participate in the implementation of GI are different in private and public space. The deterministic factors of GI participation are gender, education level, and floor for private space, while only include building age for public space, in addition to the common factors of free time, cognition of GI, perception of pluvial flood risk, supportive factors, and environment-improving factors that can influence both private and public space GI participation. Our analysis therefore provides valuable information for policymakers concerning nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation and urban sustainability.@en

Extreme flooding usually causes huge losses of residential buildings and household properties, which is critical to flood risk analysis and flood resilience building in Shanghai. We developed a scenario-based multidisciplinary approach to analyze the exposure, losses and risks of residential buildings and household properties, and their spatial patterns at the neighborhood committee level in Shanghai, based on extreme storm flood scenarios of 1/200, 1/500, 1/1000 and 1/5000-year. Our findings show that the inundation area of the residential buildings caused by a 1/200-year storm flood reaches 24.9 km², and the total loss of residential buildings and household properties is 29.7 billion CNY (Chinese Yuan) (or 4.4 billion USD), while the inundation area of residential buildings and the total loss increases up to 162.4 km² and 366.0 billion CNY (or 54.2 billion USD), respectively for a 1/5000-year storm flood. The estimated average annual loss (AAL) of residential buildings and household properties for Shanghai is 590 million CNY/year (or 87.4 million USD/year), with several hot spots distributed around the main urban area and on the bank of the Hangzhou Bay. Among sixteen districts, Pudong has the highest exposure and annual expected loss, while the inner city is also subject to extreme flooding with an AAL up to near half of the total. An analysis of flood risk in each of 209 subdistricts/towns finds that those most vulnerable to storm flooding are concentrated in Pudong, Jiading, Baoshan Districts and the inner city. Our work can provide meaningful information for risk-sensitive urban planning and resilience building in Shanghai. The methodology can also be used for risk analysis in other coastal cities facing the threat of storm flooding.

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Estuary deltas and coastal cities are facing with the rising risk of the compound flooding due to the coincidence of storm surge, extreme precipitation, high tide and high river discharge. A new integrated numerical modeling system, which coupled atmosphere, ocean and coast processes, was developed to simulate the extreme compound coastal flooding (including four threats of flooding) in Shanghai. The new developed model was calibrated to provide a valid numerical solution for the integrated compound flooding simulation. The results showed that flooding area (inundation depth > 0.2 m) was reduced by approximately 62% after the enhancement of seawall and levee in 1998. Therefore, it is concluded that seawall and levee construction plays a key role in coastal flooding prevention in Shanghai. The accurate simulation of extreme compound coastal flooding provides rational information for the future planning of property insurance and city development.@en