The growing demand for parcel deliveries is causing significant problems for freight logistics, particularly in cities. The increasing number of delivery vehicles leads to traffic congestion, high emissions, and rising costs. To address these problems, new and sustainable delivery methods must be implemented for
the parcel last-mile. However, estimating the impact of a different logistics system is complex, as it depends on consumer adoption of these new delivery methods.
This paper presents a new simulation model that captures and explores the interconnections between multiple delivery methods and consumer preferences for those delivery methods. Consumers’ reaction to the performance and availability of the delivery methods is simulated, next to knowledge progress via
word of mouth and familiarisation. The developed hybrid model uses system dynamics to simulate the evolution of consumer preferences and the last-mile delivery via van, self-collection, crowdshipping and drone delivery at an aggregate level, while an agent-based model provides input on the operational performance of the delivery methods. With this structure, consecutive
interactions can be simulated, and by that, data on consumer preferences and the delivery method operations can be obtained at multiple time points.
Results of a case study on the province of South Holland show that consumers change their preferences due to the introduction of new delivery methods. However, the vehicle kilometres and emissions of van delivery do not reduce at the same rate as the demand. The study also highlights zonal differences in last-mile services and the importance of delivery quality to consumers.