The Netherlands has suffered form three successive dry summers resulting in a lowering of the groundwater table, causing water shortage. Also in the area of Water BoardDe Dommel, locatedwithin the province of Brabant, water shortage is a common problem. This results in water abstraction restrictions for farmers in the crop season every year. With climate change the precipitation pattern in the Netherlands will change, resulting in longer dry periods during summertime. Water Board De Dommel is searching for strategies to decrease this water shortage. These strategies need to be tested for future climate scenarios. This research tests different interventions for two specific areas within De Dommel. These areas differ in land-use, location in the catchment, geo(hydro)logy and infrastructure. This research answers the following research question: How does the groundwater of two different areas within Waterschap De Dommel react to different interventions
to prevent water shortage in long-termfuture scenarios?
To find the answer to this research question a stationary groundwater model (iMOD) is used. In this model
the different interventions are tested with four climate scenarios from the KNMI. These interventions take place in the top layers of the subsoil. Next to these interventions also three abstraction scenarios are modeled, to see the effect of changes in deeper aquifer layers. The interventions are tested with three signals from the model: 1) the head of the first aquifer layer, 2) the water balance for both areas for the first aquifer layer as well as the first four aquifer layers combined and 3) the flow paths. Because models include uncertainties and assumptions, expert judgement is included to test the interventions. The expert judgment is based on historical maps and the location of the interventions. At the end of the research a non-stationary model is used to test the "Brook swamp" intervention. This result is compared to the results of the stationary model of this intervention. The results show that changes in the top layers of the subsoil have almost no effect on the groundwater in the deeper layers for De Pielis area. More downstream in the catchment, at the Landschotse Heide area, this effect is bigger, because of changes in the upstream area. In the top soil layers the groundwater reacts positive for most interventions for both areas resulting in more water availability. Also in the top layers the effect is bigger at the Landschotse Heide area than at De Pielis area. With the non-stationary model results the groundwater reacts more positive to the "Brook swamp" intervention than for the stationary model. A non-stationary model is therefore better to see how the groundwater reacts to seasonal dependent interventions. The groundwater reacts differently per areas as well as per intervention. In both areas the groundwater does react positively to most interventions. For the Landschotse Heide area the groundwater reacts more positive than for De Pielis area. For both areas the "higher water level" and "closed ditches" interventions show the most positive reactions of the groundwater. Based on these results the Water Board is advised to research the effect of enriching the top layer of De Pielis, to see if these top layers can then hold more water. For the Landschotse Heide the Water Board is advised to decide if agriculture or nature is more important in that area, because these cannot coincide, and reach all demands, in the way it is set-up now.

In 2011, Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) was introduced in the Dutch Delta Program as a policy development method to incorporate uncertainty in decision making transparently. Currently, little is known over the functioning of ADM in practice, while this is determining its success. The study explores the application of ADM in Dutch practice. Starting from the scientific foundation of ADM is being researched how ADM is shaped in practice using interviews with actors on the strategy level and the implementation level. The results are analyzed to explore what they mean for the adaptiveness of coping with sea-level rise by Dutch delta management. The research shows that the application of the greater part of the instruments of Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) is not coherent with how they should be applied according to theory. The first difference observed is that adaptation pathway maps in practice are far simpler than prescribed in theory; they only contain the preferential strategy instead of multiple strategies, and no signposts and transfer stations are defined. Secondly, adaptation tipping points are more flexible in practice than is prescribed in theory. The final difference observed is that evaluating strategies in practice has a fixed rhythm, while according to theory, continuous evaluation and recalibration should occur whenever new information comes available. The main implication of these differences is that ADM in practice provides less guidance to policymakers on when and which adjustments of strategies are needed than in theory. Based on the analysis of the similarities and differences between theory and practice, the research found that currently, the governance of ADM in practice in the Netherlands does not enhance adaptation to sea-level rise. The study stresses the importance of taking action to keep the Netherlands safe from sea-level rise now and in the future. Therefore, several recommendations inspired by the theoretical foundation of ADM are proposed to ensure adaptation to sea-level rise is enhanced. The first recommendation aims to ensure that policymakers get insight into the solution space to cope with sea-level rise and understand what measures need to be taken today to keep the long-term solutions open. Furthermore, actors involved in the implementation of strategies (such as regional water authorities, municipalities and water utility companies) should obtain insight into the possible consequences of sea-level rise for their area and know how to incorporate this in decision making.

At the UN conference of 2015, the promotion of inland waterway transport (IWT) was named as a Sustainable Development Goal by the United Nations. While IWT has been identified to make goods transport more CO2- efficient, the long-term viability of the Dutch IWT sector is at risk.

Currently, Dutch IWT businesses benefit from increased demand for transport capacity during climate change induced periods of low river depth by being able to charge higher prices to shippers, thereby increasing short term profits. This thesis research project concludes that this behaviour is unsustainable due to the disregard for providing price competitive and reliable services to shippers, which will ultimately damage the reputation of the Dutch IWT sector. This can lead to shippers choosing other modes of transport, which will damage the long-term viability of IWT demand.

A lack of evident optimal climate adaptation measures that would better guarantee the long-term viability of an IWT business under any climate scenario is one of the reasons why IWT businesses have thus far been hesitant towards implementing climate adaptation measures. This thesis research project studies the potential of using a robust decision analysis in supporting IWT businesses’ decision-making on climate adaptation measures that could safeguard the long- term viability of the Dutch IWT sector. It conducts a robust decision analysis and then evaluates its potential using feedback from stakeholders of the Dutch IWT sector.

This thesis research project present the results from the robust decision analysis to IWT stakeholders to evaluate how these could impact their decision-making. Stakeholders noted that they believe that the produced influence diagram could be used as a standard communication object to produce a better consensus of how measures influence the long-term viability of IWT demand. Furthermore, stakeholders expressed that the robust decision analysis provided them a better understanding of which measures were able to better guarantee the long-term viability of IWT demand. Results from evaluation interviews with stakeholders therefore provide grounds to believe that robust decision analyses have potential to support IWT businesses’ decision- making on climate adaptation measures that could safeguard the long-term viability of the Dutch IWT sector.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the current climate policy is not beneficial to our planet. Climate change is having several negative effects on the planetary environment and its health (Rig- not et al., 2011). Among these negative effects is the rise of the seawater level (Jevrejeva et al., 2014). Efforts are being made to counter this with various actions, such as the Paris agreement (Levine & Steele, 2021). However, there is a chance that the agreement will turn out differently than planned (Meinshausen, 2016). It is therefore important, and socially most-relevant, to think about what to do if this happens. This means that alternatives are being looked into and examined. A drastic alternative is the Northern European Enclosure Dam (NEED). NEED is a dam that consists of two parts to protect Northern Europe against the rising of the sea level. The idea for this radical innovation, to create a dam consisting of two parts, comes from oceanographer Sjoerd Groeskamp and engineer Joakim Kjellsson and came to life in 2019. The first part is the southern part which runs from France to England, with a length of 161 kilometers. The second part is the northern part which runs from Scotland to Norway, with a length of 476 kilometers (Groeskamp & Kjellsson, 2020)

The current approach in riverine climate adaptation strategies aims to accommodate all functionalities of rivers into one singular riverbed, but runs into the limitations of an integrated spatial system. The research shows that the different functionalities of rivers, i.e. the different riverine regimes, in synchronization will lead to a decline in performance of these separate regimes.

This thesis project Perspectives on the IJssel explores and illustrates an alternative future for the IJssel, in which an integral approach is paramount but with a methodology build on spatial decomposition rather than spatial integration. The project argues that integrative design through spatial segregation in parallel systems offers a widening of solution space within an integral approach.

Climate change is increasingly becoming more impactful on our society. Recent events such as the extreme rainfall in the summer of 2021 in Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands and hurricane Ida in Mississippi (USA), caused severe floodings and damages in these areas. Climate change, in turn, leads to an increase in sea level rise, making flood prone areas more at risk for floodings. However, the magnitude of rise in sea level is of an uncertain nature. This bolsters the idea of applying adaptive designing methods on flood defence systems to tackle the uncertainties decision makers and engineers face in the wake of climate change, whilst finding a balance between safety and expenditures. In this research, I apply adaptive design methods on the Rhine-Meuse estuary to develop an adaptive flood defence system in a system-to-structure approach. Thus, to converge onto a flood defence structure, three design loops are considered. In the first loop multiple adaptive systems are designed with the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, showing various flood defence options and other required measures to allow the functioning of the systems, as a function of sea level rise. To select an adaptive system in which an adaptive flood defence structure is developed, a set of preferred pathways (systems) are designed and quantified in three sea level rise scenarios. This leads to a preferred open/closable system in which a storm surge barrier is developed to replace the current Maeslant barrier at the end of its life span. In the second loop a Multi Criteria Analysis is applied to determine a preferable location and barrier type, which resulted in the adoption of a sector gate barrier near Maasdijk. In the third design loop, a reliability model is developed to determine whether designing barrier in an adaptive manner is (economically) beneficial to cope with uncertainties surrounding that of sea level rise and the relative structural failure probability of the barrier over a range of sea level rise scenarios. With the model I was able to produce data about the balance between structural safety of various designs and construction costs of the barrier. Subsequently, the model provided substantiated data about which components of the barrier provide a high level of confidence in returning positive economical benefits when designed as adaptive. The applied method in this thesis shows promise, however, to further develop adaptive designing methods it is important to apply the approach in other, quantitative, case studies.

Long-term planning in urbanizing deltas has to deal with deep uncertainties in socio-economic development and climate change. Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) has been developed as an approach that acknowledges these and similar uncertainties. The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 has, in principle, adopted the ADM approach, and it recognizes general uncertainties in (external) physical and socio-economic conditions. It does, however, not acknowledge uncertainties in the way local communities may adapt to uncertain conditions and policy measures. Historical analysis confirms that local adaptation may be different from policymaker’s expectations, and that ignoring this may seriously harm the effectiveness of such a planning approach. This research offers two novel approaches for systematic exploration of the uncertainties in community livelihood adaptation under a variety of uncertain future conditions. The first approach looks into the mental model that guides local actors’ decision making, while the second approach uses a model describing the impact of (external) triggers on actors’ motivation and abilities for a variety of adaptation actions. While both these approaches might be improved, case study applications in the polders of southwest Bangladesh illustrate their utility as instruments to create awareness of possible developments and to act as vehicles for participatory learning by both policymakers and local communities. @en

Throughout human history deltas attract people and all other sorts of life. Inherent to this increase of delta life is the growth in conflicting values and interests. Coastal systems are not only natural systems, but can also be regarded as societal and ecological systems. Development of the coastal system inevitably leads to changes in these associated societal and ecological systems. Hence, a coast is not only defined by its physical characteristics, but it can also be defined by means of values and interests. The mouth of the Haringvliet in the Southwest of the Netherlands is a striking example where coastal evolution has its impact on societal and ecological systems. Here, a multitude of anthropogenic interferences triggered a regime shift of the coastal system. While continuously developing towards a new equilibrium, coastal evolution has its impact on societal and ecological systems. When it comes to coastal management it is of vital importance to link the changes in the coastal system with values and interest to understand what impact coastal evolution has had and will continue to have on these systems. Applied to the Voorne case, this study demonstrates that it is possible to link the stakeholders values and interests to the physical coastal processes making use of a framework for analysis.

In 2018 The Netherlands experienced the most severe drought since 1976. In response to this, the Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management established the 'Beleidstafel Droogte'. An external scientific committee took part in the Beleidstafel Droogte. One of their key recommendations was to introduce other drought indicators since the currently used indicator (precipitation deficit) is not sufficient due to limitations. This research investigates what drought indicators can be used in The Netherlands to support anticipative drought management. For water managers, it is crucial to know when and where drought occurs, and how severe this drought is. To reveal the start, severity, and ending of a drought, drought indicators can be used. However, to define drought, regional differences need to be incorporated. Therefore, this research used a case study area to find out what drought indicators can be introduced. Within the boundaries of this area, three different analyses were conducted: 1) hydrological analysis, 2) stakeholder analysis and 3) policy analysis. According to the results, a set of potentially relevant and suitable drought indicators was selected. These drought indicators were tested with focus groups to determine whether they can be used to support anticipative drought management. The area of water board Vallei & Veluwe was selected as the case study area. Concerning the hydrological analysis, multiple methods were applied to obtain a better understanding of the water system and essential hydrological processes. Because of the relative nature of drought, several stakeholders that are directly affected by drought were interviewed. Through semi-structured interviews, information concerning drought was obtained about the stakes and information needs for different stakeholders. Since measures can be taken to anticipate drought or to mitigate drought problems, the policy on drought was considered. In this way, the interrelation between policy on drought and drought indicators was taken into account. The results of the analyses mentioned above led to the following selection of drought indicators: SPI-1 & SPI-3, soil moisture, stream discharge, groundwater levels/isohypse, NDVI and EVI. To test the selected indicators can support anticipative drought management, two focus groups session were organised. For these focus groups, a dry year was reconstructed, which was explored by the participants. Based on the information that was presented to the participants, they were asked whether they would advise taking measures and what their level of alertness was. One group received information from the selected indicators, whereas the other group received information which is used nowadays for drought monitoring. After evaluating and comparing the focus groups, conclusions were drawn. The participants that received information from the selected drought indicators acted more pro-active, because: 1) measures were advised more rapidly, 2) more measures were advised, and maintained applicable for a more extended period, and 3) the level of alertness was significantly higher. Based on these findings, it was concluded that the selected drought indicators support anticipative drought management.

Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) is a webtool-based participation method that is used to increase participation by others than the usual suspects. In PVE, respondents are asked to allocate a budget or points to a portfolio of projects that reflect real policy options, therewith evaluating the projects by stating their preferences. However, the provision of information in PVE on complex subjects such as urban climate adaptation still is characterized by some problems such as susceptibility by framing, misinterpretation and self-selection. In other words, information provision often does not comply with wishes and needs of participants. In this research, two information provision approaches are tested in PVE in an information manipulation experiment. From the research both quantitative as qualitative results are obtained, analysed by using a mixed methods approach. It is observed that the tested information provision approaches do not affect the choices made in PVE or participants’ feeling of empowerment. Moreover, it appears that the wishes and needs for information in PVE vary widely between participants. It is concluded that this heterogeneity should be the starting point in designing information provision. Deliberative participation and progressive disclosure of information are ways to accomplish this. It is recommended to apply these approaches in PVE in future research.

It is no secret that the climate is changing, however, the severity and speed of this process is under debate. This leads to the question if and when we need to take action to protect the Netherlands against the effects of climate change. In order to deal with the uncertainties in policy- and decision-making, an adaptive approach is desirable. An option is to apply the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach.

The DAPP approach has been applied successfully in several large scale projects. However, less attention is given to the application on small scale areas, and no applications on (small-scaled) polder areas are present. The aim of this report is to answer the following research question: "Is the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach suited for improving the adaptivity of polder management, given the uncertainty in climate change effects?" The Zuidplaspolder is used as a case area for application of the DAPP approach. This deep-lying polder is interesting due to its diverse land use, the low elevation levels and already present issues in water management.

Through assessing the potential effects of climate change, conducting interviews, creating a hydrological model and following the steps of the DAPP procedure, a pathway map for the Zuidplaspolder is created. This pathway map is evaluated during focus groups with stakeholders from the Zuidplaspolder case area, as well as actors from a different polder area, being the Schermerpolder. Besides evaluating the applicability of the pathway map, the DAPP approach itself was assessed as well.

The pathway map provided several insights, one being the requirement to start considering actions at present in order to timely cope with issues in the future.
Moreover, it was found that the DAPP approach is suited for improving the adaptivity in polder management, given the uncertainty in climate change effects. The pathway map is a helpful tool for authorities and affected stakeholders within polder areas to explicate upcoming issues. However, a cost-benefit analysis is required for actual, well-informed policy- and decision-making based on the pathway map. Nonetheless, it assists in making decisions more strategically and to explain certain choices in decision-making, which helps in creating support and understanding. Even though there are difficulties in translating large-scale actions and their effects to a smaller scale, the scale of the case area proved not to be a major issue. At last, the DAPP approach is found useful for other polder areas as well. However, a general pathway map cannot be created, since each polder has its unique set of characteristics and stakeholders with mindset on urgency.

When the pathway map is utilised for actual policy- and decision making, the use of an extended model is recommended. Here, probabilistic simulations are suggested, as well as the incorporation of several components that were excluded in this research. For identifying an integral pathway map for Dutch polder areas, it is recommended to research the clustering of polder characteristics on their constraints and related measures. By selecting the clusters that fit a designated case polder, a tailored pathway map can be created.

Flood risk management is the process of analysing, assessing and (if required) reducing flood risks, in terms of economic costs and affected population or loss of life. The analysis is performed through a probabilistic approach in which the factors are represented by a probability distribution function to address uncertainties. However, relevant factors in the analysis, such as mean sea level and the population living in the area, often are deeply uncertain on the longer term, resulting for example from climate change and changing socio-economic conditions. Generally, FRM explores these conditions through scenario analysis. However, the way FRM creates and analyses the scenarios is subjective and leaves open a lot of uncertainty. Often, only a limited set of subjective qualitative scenarios is made, which risks not taking scenarios into account that turn out to be important later. Quantitative scenarios become increasingly uncertain as the time horizon over which these are used lengthens, due to uncertainty in the trend.This research investigates a new addition to flood risk management to support it in dealing with long-term deep uncertainty. It uses robust decision making approaches as an addition to the usual FRM approach, by analysing results for a much larger set of scenarios to increase robustness, both static and flexible, to different scenarios. It combines aspects of dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Haasnoot, Kwakkel, Walker, & ter Maat, 2013) and aspects from robust decision making (Lempert, Popper, & Bankes, 2003), with the FRM approach to create an eight-step iterative approach called Flood Risk Adaptation Pathways, which was later tested in a case study. The approach starts by analysing the current situation and possible futures, after which it determines the difference between those situations and the preferred state. Based on this, possible flood risk reduction measures are designed, and then tested on their performance in a flood risk screening model, to create so called effectiveness regions, which show under which conditions which solutions are effective in reducing the gap between states. Based on the effectiveness regions, pathways of actions over the different possible futures are created. A monitoring plan is then created, which defines the signposts and their trigger values. Finally, the situation is monitored and actions are implemented when required.The Flood Risk Adaptation Pathways approach aims to provide policymakers with the ability to anticipate different futures, by creating actions, which meet the objectives, for a wide range of tested futures. It should allow policymakers to plan the implementation of measures ahead of time. The long-term situation is investigated, including the measures required at that point, and linked to the current situation, including the currently required measures. This should ensure that measures remain implementable by actively assuring the conditions for implementation are not violated, thus reducing negative effects of path-dependency. The link between the long-term measures and the current measures should also allow for an improved cohesion of the sequence of measures, with short-term measures providing a starting point for long-term measures. Finally, it narrows down the measures to the ones highlighted by the approach for later on in the process, when an action needs to be implemented.The approach has been tested in a case study, on Beira, Mozambique, which is prone to severe rainfall and coastal flooding. Furthermore, compound flooding problems arise when high sea water levels coincide with rainfall events. The Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening model (van Berchum, van Ledden, Jonkman, Timmermans, & van den Broek, 2019) was used to model the current flood risk, as well as the effect of flood risk reduction measures on the flood risk, affected population and construction costs. For this research, the model was adapted to test specific actions over a set of changing conditions, to test their performance for the longer term. The approach was then used in the case study, following the steps (described above). The data was gathered from local sources and reference projects. After the completion of the case study, the approach was reflected upon: The main limitation arising from the case study, is the considerable computation time and time-consuming analysis of the results. Overall, Flood Risk Adaptation Pathways strengthen the FRM approach in dealing with long-term deep uncertainty, and thereby enhance the performance of flood risk reduction strategies under different than expected conditions.

Identify the barriers within Arcadis by evaluating internal approaches, knowledge and differences in domains to increase the action perspective in the approach of climate-proof cities. The data was collected by performing 24 interviews and this was analysed and structured using the PRIMO-chain model.

Water scarcity has been a growing problem for many places around the world as water usage has been increasing with double the rate of population growth in the twentieth century. As agriculture accounts for 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals, fresh water availability will thus face even greater stress (World Bank, 2013). Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) 2, 6 and 7 (UN, 2015) show that the achievement of water, food, and energy security have been set to a high priority on the global world agenda. However, achieving these goals cannot be done without a proper understanding of the interlinkages between the sectors. As water resources become more stretched, the energy and food sectors’ dependence on water implies that decision-makers in all three domains should increasingly focus on water resource management as part of their policy and practice (“Water, Food and Energy | UN-Water,” n.d.).

In light of this, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations launched the so-called Water Productivity Open-access portal (WaPOR). The portal provides free and open access to processed satellite data that enables monitoring of land and water productivity throughout Africa and the Middle East in near real time. Crop Water Productivity is defined as the crop yield per unit of water consumed, expressed in kg/m3. The objective of this thesis is to explore and assess the available datasets provided by WaPOR to improve current water resource management practices in agriculture in the Eastern Nile Basin countries. The study focuses on the quantification of monthly water withdrawals for irrigation purposes, as well as benchmarking physical water productivity of the main irrigated crops within so-called Agro-Ecological Zones of each country. Throughout this study, crop water productivity is assessed and defined as the amount of agricultural yield that can be attained per unit of water that was allocated for its production, expressed in kg/m3. Data analysis and modeling are the major tools applied to assess spatial variation of water withdrawals and water productivity and subsequently to explain the results. The results are both the quantification of monthly water withdrawals for irrigation purposes, as well as benchmarking crop water productivity of the main irrigated crops within of the countries of the case study: Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.

Irrigation is considered the largest water-consuming sector in the world and has great potential to become more water-efficient. Rain-fed agriculture, however, does not influence the water balance within a catchment and can thus not improve its water efficiency. Separating irrigated agriculture from rain-fed agriculture can be done by splitting the total evaporation in so-called green and blue water evaporation. Evaporation from green water is the part of the actual evaporation that is derived from rainfall that infiltrated into the soil, while evaporation from blue water is due to the use of human-made infrastructure such as pumps, with the purpose of irrigation. With blue water evaporation, the total water consumption [m3] that was used for irrigation can subsequently be calculated. This can be used to then calculate the water productivity, but also provides insight into the current water management practices of a country. The principle of the Budyko Curve has been applied to obtain blue water evaporation (Budyko, 1974), in compliance with the Water Accounting Plus procedure that was developed at IHE Delft by Wim Bastiaanssen et al. (Bastiaanssen, W.G.M., Coerver, 2017). Finally, water consumption was obtained by multiplying the pixel size with the sum of the monthly blue evaporation. The outcome of these calculations provides a water consumption expressed in m3/month.

Water productivity is calculated by dividing agricultural yield [kg] by the amount of water that was consumed for its production [m3]. Agricultural yield was obtained by multiplying above ground biomass production (AGBP) with a crop harvest index according to the crop that was identified with the phenology data. To determine the specific growing season of a pixel, so-called “Start Of Season” (SOS) and “End OF Season” (EOS) phenology data are combined. By comparing the growing season of the pixel with literature from the FAO crop calendar, the crop type could be determined. The total water consumption between the SOS and EOS dekad numbers is summed to provide the total water consumption during the growing season of the crop. This way Crop Water Productivity is eventually obtained.

Throughout this thesis, the assumption was made that crops could be distinguished and recognized, based on the available phenology data. Considering the fact that a ‘no season’ label is applied when no growing season can be distinguished, agricultural cropland was thought to be identified through this method. However, from the fact that reasonable results complying with the literature are found with the use of the FAO LCC Land Cover Map, it follows that the identification of crops through phenology and blue evaporation data does not provide accurate results. This is especially the case for Ethiopia and to a lesser extent Sudan, likely due to the fact that Egypt has hardly any rainfall and therefore consists almost solely of irrigated agriculture. Similarly, ground truthing should therefore be done regarding crop identification and the presence of irrigation per pixel.

Calculating water withdrawals gave a promising outcome for Egypt, as the calculated water withdrawals were almost similar to the water withdrawals stated by AQUASTAT. However, numbers differed by a factor 10 for both Sudan and Ethiopia. When the FAO WaPOR LCC mask is applied, better results are achieved. The calculated water withdrawals for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia are lower than FAO AQUASTAT’s numbers. It should, however, be noted that FAO AQUASTAT’s numbers are based on the required water withdrawals, while WaPOR calculates the effective water withdrawals. Lower values could imply low efficiencies of the irrigation systems, which is not uncommon for all three countries. With a typical irrigation efficiency of 60 to 70% (Howell, 2003), the total amount of water withdrawals can be computed with Q_irrigation/0.65 (Kwast et al., 2016). When this is taken into consideration, the results seem promising.

Overlapping phenologies of crops and the indistinct connection with the above ground biomass data are factors that caused unreliable results for the calculation of crop water productivity. The high CWP values that were found in Ethiopia are high compared to the reasonable values found in Egypt and Sudan. This could possibly be due to the fact that the pixels are wrongly identified as irrigated pixels. After all, CWP was assessed for all pixels that contain blue evaporation and was not masked with the FAO WaPOR LCC mask. It is therefore recommended to use an accurate land use mask when CWP is assessed.

Sea levels are rising globally and the melting Antarctic ice sheet is attributed to be the primary contributor. Due to the deep uncertainty of the causal representative carbon pathways, the plausible range of sea levels rise varies between 0,26 - 2,43 m for 2100 and 0,50 - 15,52 m for 2300. To address deep uncertainty, decision making methods arise which struggle with including measures preparing the shift from incremental to transitional strategies required for the case of extreme sea level rise scenarios. This research addresses flood risk management in the Netherlands, a country which will face ecological, economical, technological and political challenges as sea levels climb. In anticipation to extreme sea level rise and its challenges, the Dutch process of coastline shortening and solidating can be carried through. Another viable option is a more gradual zone between land and water. To review both options, the distribution of systems sensitive to flooding is mapped. The overlay of systems facilitates the establishment of a framework which distinguishes elements based on their pace of transition and offers a multilayered image differentiating regions with an emphasis on either population or nature. This dichotomy structures the proposal for the transitional territorial outline by harmoniously applying a superimposed coastline and a dynamic coastline respectively. Tipping points of flood defence measures assess the physical feasibility of the transition which is mainly constrained by societal limitations. This results in incremental improvements, further increasing transfer costs, path dependency and the difficulty to shift to transitional strategies. Throughout history, only catastrophic floods were leading to transitional flood measures, but transition management is referred to as enabling development of a long-term sustainability perspective, linked to desired societal transitions, to guide accelerated social innovation in the short term. The theory’s transition arena with frontrunners and a transition image is capable of opposing the resistance-giving, established standard and is instrumental for communication, discussion and evolvement of the transition of flood risk management.

Rural communities in drylands of low-income countries represent highly vulnerable societies that are
often strongly affected by the increased climate variability (UNDP, 2007/2008). Additionally to climatic
uncertainty, local households have also to cope with strongly fluctuating political and economic
conditions, which are difficult to predict and impede regional development. Current planning practices
that aim to address these uncertainties are often model based top-down focused approaches that lack an
appropriate inclusion of local stakeholders. Crucial next steps are the downscaling of models to increase
their local applicability and the incorporation of the knowledge and preferences of practitioners to
achieve a sustainable landscape management plan. In this thesis, I developed a participatory planning
approach to support sustainable development under uncertain future conditions and applied it to a case
study in the southern drylands of Zimbabwe.
The newly developed planning approach is based on a synthesis of current good practices in development
aid and recent advancements of research in predictive planning and management. Specifically, the
dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2013) are merged with the landscape approach (Sayer
et al., 2013), which accounts for sustainable development in a participatory manner, and transformed into
a new dynamic adaptive development pathways approach.
The dynamic adaptive development pathways approach was applied to plan the upscaling of irrigation
practices using an alluvial aquifer in Zimbabwe. A critical step was the use of visualisation sessions and
focus group discussions to define the landscape area and local values, as well as to assemble a set of
promising development actions. I then assessed the collected information using value matrixes and a
hydrological model, to design different pathways for sustainable development.
The creation of naturally, socially and ecologically sustainable pathways in a participatory manner for this
case study proved possible and may function as a seed for sustainable development in the area. While
uptake and application of the approach by local stakeholders still needs to be assessed, the adaptive
capacity seems a valuable addition for development planning under uncertain future conditions.

The main objective for the research is the development of a comprehensive and easily accessible method assessing the price changes of wheat and cocoa by predicting change in wheat and cocoa production using season key point in the growing season of wheat and cocoa and open precipitation data from ground based weather stations only. The found results are assessed towards their impact on the movement of wheat and cocoa prices.