The energy transition is a fundamental shift in the world’s energy landscape, aimed at reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to a more sustainable, low-carbon energy system. This transition is closely aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the landmark international treaty adopted in 2015, which seeks to limit global warming, with an aspirational target of limiting it to 1.5 degrees celsius. The European Union has been a key player in both the development of the Paris Agreement and its implementation, demonstrating its commitment to combating climate change. To achieve this target, the European Union is pursuing various strategies, including the decarbonization of its energy sector. In order to stay in line with the goals, drastic actions are being carried out without entirely assessing the long term outcomes. Energy transitions are often accompanied by changes in the distribution of benefits and harms, and if these changes are not managed equitably, they may increase existing inequalities and create new forms of injustice.
The government of the Netherlands has taken several measures to achieve climate neutrality, one crucial task being the replacement of natural gas in its heating network. The heating sector so far has been reliant on shale gas for the past few decades, and the government now wants to implement new alternatives that are more sustainable. To anticipate the most favorable options, governmental bodies and local authorities are utilizing tools to assist them in their decision-making processes, especially energy system models.
Energy system modelling is a process of developing and analyzing models that represent the components and processes of energy systems. These models help to simulate the operation and behavior of energy systems under different scenarios and conditions, and to evaluate the impacts of policy decisions and technology choices. However, energy system models often neglect the social dimensions which are essential components of energy justice. This study aims to present a critical analysis of the representation of energy justice in energy system models through a case study and identifies the challenges of integrating energy justice considerations into energy system modelling. Thus the
following main research question was formulated:
To what extent have energy justice principles been represented in Energy modelling employed in the Dutch Heating Transition?
To set up the study, it was essential to establish the concept of energy justice and explore what kind of modelling approaches were being deployed. A literature review on this topic helped to understand the concepts, and select an energy justice framework that would serve as the base for this study (Sovacool & Dworkin, 2015). The framework provided a set of justice principles that were selected to assess the modelling use cases. This thesis explores the integration of energy justice principles within energy system modelling through an analysis of two distinct use case approaches in the municipality level, in the districts of Amersfoort and Drechtsteden in the Netherlands. These two use cases were chosen since they both had a large, diverse population, they had implemented a Heat Transition Vision and they made use of an energy model in their decision making process. The study aims to understand how energy justice considerations are manifested in the models and transition visions that were drafted, the challenges and opportunities they present, and their implications for equitable and sustainable energy transitions.
The study then included a document analysis to collect information, where a total of eleven reports were scrutinized to find how justice principles were defined in the models and heat visions. This was followed by semi structured interviews with eight participants from varied backgrounds, to gather their perspectives on how justice principles were interpreted and the challenges they faced. The data collected was categorically grouped in themes, focusing on affordability, transparency, resistance and sustainability. The results of this study reveal that both use cases incorporate elements of energy justice in an indirect manner. Affordability is addressed through mechanisms like tax credits and
investment allowances. Transparency is facilitated through engagement platforms and collaborative sessions, promoting stakeholder involvement. While resistance in the form of economic barriers is recognized, social aspects of resistance receive less attention. Sustainability is evident through considerations of energy-saving potential and monitoring carbon emissions.
While energy justice principles are not explicitly defined in the models, various attributes and mechanisms correspond to these principles. However, challenges and limitations include diverse interpretations of energy justice, tensions between prioritizing technical and social dimensions, and the quantification of ethical concepts. The difficulty in selecting the right modelling approach and the right source of information also leads to uncertainty and complexity.
This study contributes to the understanding of energy justice by providing empirical insights into its integration within energy system modeling. The findings highlight the complexities and possibilities of this integration, offering lessons for policymakers, researchers, and model developers. Recommendations for future research include exploring the impacts of energy justice measures in other sectors of the transition and also utilizing other frameworks to assess energy justice. ... Read more

The establishment of a well-developed charging infrastructure is imperative for the broader adoption of Electric Vehicle (EV) and necessitates the formulation of an effective charging infrastructure policy. To navigate the intricacies involved in the policymaking process, the incorporation of EV charging models can be advantageous. Existing research indicates that models have a significant impact on facilitating policymaking in the broader energy sector. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether computer-based models exert a similar influence on the EV charging policies. Previous studies lack comprehensive insights into the practical application of models in EV charging policy processes and the resultant policy modifications due to the unique attributes of both EV charging models and policies. Furthermore, there exists a lack of systematic understanding regarding the utilization of charging infrastructure models. Given these gaps in knowledge, this research aims to investigate the following question: How does modeling evidence influence EV charging infrastructure policymaking in the UK and the Netherlands?
This study finds that EV charging models have exerted substantial influence across various stages of local policy cycles, significantly shaping decision-making processes. Such impact has pre- dominantly concentrated on the practical and operational aspects of the models, primarily concerning the optimal number and spatial distribution of charging points. However, there remains a noticeable lack of attention to strategic considerations pertaining to broader energy transition and green transport initiatives. This oversight is particularly evident in the insufficient exploration of how EV charging in- frastructure can be effectively integrated into a more extensive and long-term blueprint. This research highlights the need for a strategic-level approach to comprehend the interplay between EV charging networks and the larger energy transition agenda, encompassing themes such as renewable energy integration, smart grid compatibility and urban planning synergies. Consequently, policymakers and modelers should expand their planning of charging infrastructure to encompass the broader landscape and envision how EV charging models can harmonize with sustainable urban development, ensuring a cohesive and effective implementation within the overarching framework of environmental conservation and sustainable mobility. ... Read more

The escalating impacts of climate change have placed energy-related issues at the forefront of global political agendas, highlighting the critical role of energy policy in shaping sustainable futures. Energy policymaking is inherently complex, as it must reconcile the interests of multiple stakeholders while managing a highly interconnected and technically intricate energy system. Energy system modeling has emerged as a crucial tool for supporting policymakers in navigating this complexity, giving rise to a model-policy interface that mediates the translation of quantitative insights into actionable policy decisions. However, the occurrence of energy crises, which are historically frequent and impactful, raises important questions about how such crises influence the functioning of this interface and the role that energy system modeling plays during periods of heightened urgency.

This research investigates the influence of crisis situations on the use and impact of energy system modeling in policymaking. The study employs a mixed qualitative approach, combining a comprehensive literature review with semi-structured interviews of experts involved in the model-policy interface, including energy modelers, policymakers, and industry professionals. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative content analysis, which generated three key thematic insights regarding stakeholder roles, crisis urgency, and the impact of uncertainty on modeling’s influence.

The first theme, stakeholder reflections on roles and challenges, highlights how modelers and policymakers perceive their positions within the interface. Modelers see themselves as providing supportive, analytical input, while policymakers emphasize the value of interaction with modeling experts to inform decision-making. Nonetheless, challenges persist due to the inherent complexity of models, time constraints in policymaking, and gaps in technical expertise among stakeholders, which can hinder effective communication and utilization of model results.

The second theme, urgency modulates the role of modeling in crises, differentiates between low-urgency and high-urgency crises. In low-urgency situations, the model-policy interface experiences increased collaboration, alignment, and deliberation, allowing for more considered and evidence-based policy decisions. Conversely, high-urgency crises shift decision-making to the political domain, constraining administrative freedom and reducing the opportunity for detailed modeling input. As a result, the ability to leverage quantitative insights diminishes, and rapid policy responses often take precedence over model-informed strategies.

The third theme, uncertainty, addresses the nuanced impact of crisis-induced ambiguity on modeling. While increased uncertainty can elevate the demand for model-based insights, several factors complicate this relationship: models may not be suitable for crisis-specific problems, inherent uncertainties may already dominate, and the time required for detailed modeling may limit its relevance in urgent scenarios.

The findings align partially with existing literature on the model-policy interface, particularly regarding challenges in knowledge translation and the time-intensive nature of modeling. They extend the literature by emphasizing the role of crisis perception—specifically urgency and uncertainty—in shaping the effectiveness and influence of energy system models. The study highlights the need for frameworks that can systematically assess the impact of crises on model utilization and offers a foundation for future research to explore strategies that enhance the resilience and responsiveness of the model-policy interface under crisis conditions. ... Read more