A risk-based tool to evaluate oil spill prevention and mitigative measures in arctic marine environments

Abstract

The prospect of shipping in the Arctic poses potential oil spill risk. To minimize this risk, it requires detailed evaluation of the effectiveness of measures to be used to control and mitigate the spill. In this paper, a model is presented to study and evaluate strategies for reducing the effects of oil spills on the Arctic marine ecosystem. Risk is estimated by considering exposure concentration and no-effect reference concentration. The exposure concentration is modelled using a fugacity approach and the response is estimated based on ecotoxicology studies. Control, design, and response measures are studied to ensure that risks remain within an acceptable range. The proposed model helps to evaluate efficacy of specific measures and combinations of measures on anticipated spill scenarios. A case study is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model. In the case study, the model is applied to the Exxon Valdez oil spill to identify the most effective combination of the measures to employ before and after the accident. The case study illustrates how the proposed model can assist decision makers to better prepare for potential oil spill in an Arctic marine ecosystem.