Toyota Europe’s Freight Activity Outlook - 2030

The Effect of a Post White Paper Environment on European Freight Activities

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Since 1990, this energy consumption in transport has been increasing at an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.6%. Freight transport activity, as one of the main contributors to this growth, is forecasted to increase by 50% by 2020. As a result, a number of policy issues have been raised, which can be summarized as follows: - Congestion in the European transport system is having a negative impact on cost and time of transport and is increasing fuel consumption. - Freight transport needs to be in line with EU’s climate change targets. - Freight transport is highly dependent on fossil fuel which is not in line with EU’s oil independence policies. Following these concerns, the White Paper on Transport: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area was published on 28 March 2011 by the European Commission. In this document, it was evident that the EU, for the first time, directly targeted the European freight industry and expected a reduction of CO2 emissions and a shift away from road freight to alternative modes. After noticing the shift of EUs attention towards freight, Toyota Motor Europe, raised the question concerning the effect this shift will have on its European supply chain operations. This concern initiated a study which calumniated in the formation of this Master thesis document. The study focuses on the possible effects the EU initiatives will have on European freight and subsequently Toyota’s freight activities. The research resulted in the construction of a model which was used to forecast the future modal split and CO2 emissions of Toyota’s freight activities. In order to support the initiated study, a research objective was developed and its scope was defined. The main objective was to study the effects of EU policies on the EU freight industry with regards to developments in “freight costs” and “CO2 emissions factors” and to further on, analyze the subsequent influence on the business of Toyota Motor Europe concerning its “modal split” and “total CO2 emissions”. Based on the defined research objective and the scope, the main research question was defined as: “How will the targets, outlined in the EU White Paper, change European freight and to what extent and effect will Toyota Motor Europe’s freight activities, with regards to modal split and total CO2 emissions, be affected by the changes?” In order to answer the research question, the research methodology was designed and the methods which were to be used were selected. The methods were the following: - Literature Review - Direct Observations - Stakeholder Analysis - Qualitative interviews and Stated Preference Surveys - Spread Sheet Modeling The modeling technique which was decided to be used for the study was spreadsheet modeling. The tools which were to be utilized during the development of the model were subsequently identified as follows: 1. Scenario Development; 2. Value of Time Analysis (VoT); 3. Constant Elasticity of Substitution Analysis (CES).