The impact of a breach in the Afsluitdijk on the probability of failure of IJsselmeer dikes

More Info
expand_more

Abstract

At the moment, for determining the safety of the dike ring areas around the IJsselmeer a possible failure of the Afsluitdijk is assumed to have no influence on loads occurring on the IJsselmeer dikes. As failure of the Afsluitdijk is always possible, the consequences of such a failure should be investigated. The objective of this thesis is to investigate these consequences of a possible failure of the Afsluitdijk. What happens with the water level of the IJsselmeer if during extreme conditions the Afsluitdijk breaches? This objective is achieved by first defining 4 different possible breach scenarios. Then, the effect of such a breach on the water level of the IJsselmeer is investigated. Subsequently, the consequences of this increase in water level on the probability of failure of the dikes of the Noordoostpolder is studied by using the program PC-Ring. For both cases, failure and no failure of the Afsluitdijk, the risks and consequences are combined to see the change in the risks of flooding of the Noordoostpolder.