Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

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Abstract

This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The theoretical framework was first described in the literature by Vickery et al. (2000) and is extended in this study by introducing a new formula and several substantial adjustments. The results show acceptable accuracy, even if the input data are for a short period. For the Vietnam area, the research successfully generates a large database of synthetic storm tracks on the basis of a limited historical track record and a local climatological variable (i.e. sea surface temperature). The model is evaluated through the comparisons between the key storm statistics derived from the observed and simulated data over the entire research area (i.e. the South China Sea). In addition, some possible applications of this method to coastal structure design and coastal risk assessment are proposed.