Assessing the Business, Environmental, Social, and Governance impact of green propellants as alternatives to RP-1
A multi-criteria decision analysis framework
F. Salas Gómez (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
J. Rezaei – Mentor (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
R.I.J. Dobbe – Mentor (TU Delft - Information and Communication Technology)
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Abstract
The commercialization of space activities has created decision challenges in rocket propellant selection. Organizations make technology choices based on technical and economic perspectives that might create liabilities in sustainability factors when treated as constraints rather than optimization targets.
This research develops a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework integrating Business, Environmental, Social, and Governance (BESG) dimensions to evaluate green propellant alternatives against the baseline RP-1. The framework employs Design Science Research methodology to structure the design of this framework based on Best-Worst Method for preference elicitation with nonadditive aggregation to capture criteria interactions. A fuzzy logic system allows uncertainty representation of quantitative criteria. The framework has been tested through 10 structured interviews with aerospace industry experts.
Results revealed that criteria of Business dimension dominate decisions with an aggregated weight of 63% when accounting for criteria interaction terms. From the 14 BESG criteria selected, top 9 variables account for 91% of global preference weights used for propellant selection. The sensitivity analysis showed preference weights as the variable with the greatest influence and fuzzy logic bounds as the variable with the least influence on final ranking. The resulting framework aims to provide decision support and to enable a transparent evaluation of sustainability trade-offs to build consensus for multi-stakeholder technology selection.