On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic
Hao Sun (China University of Petroleum (East China))
Haiqing Wang (China University of Petroleum (East China))
M. Yang (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
G.L.L.M.E. Reniers (Universiteit Antwerpen, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
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Abstract
To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.