A Tool for Estimating Marine Terminal Dimensions and Costs in a Project’s Feasibility Phase

Taking into account uncertainties

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is the realisation of a computer tool. The function of the tool is to estimate the required dimensions and quantities of essential container, dry and liquid bulk terminal elements, in an early design phase. As well as to give an estimate of the construction costs of these marine terminals. Terminal element dimensions are for instance the quay length and storage area. Examples of terminal element quantities are the number of berths and the number of ship-unloading equipment. The spear point of the tool is the probabilistic approach, in which uncertainties -concerning design rule variables- are taken into account. This approach results in probability distributions for the dimensions and quantities. The aim of the tool is to aid terminal or port designers by allowing them to easily consider a vast amount of input combinations. The designer therefore does not have to make exact assumptions that could lead to certain important combinations not being considered. The computations that the tool performs are based on research in this study. This research concerns terminal design rules and guidelines, common values of design rule variables and unit costs. For two variables -of which no common values could be found- Expert Judgement Elicitation (EJE) on uncertainty is applied. The results are weighted combinations of uncertainty distributions elicited from the experts. A different EJE on dependence is applied to estimate the relationships between average import, export and transhipment container dwell times. Finally, the tool is applied to the EMO terminal in Rotterdam. The EMO terminal is the largest dry bulk terminal in Europe. This application makes it possible to compare the tool’s results to the actual terminal properties. For the same terminal a sensitivity analysis is performed on the estimated total construction costs, to certain variables.