This study aimed at determining the prognostic factors related to the recurrence of low-back pain and future sickness absence due to low-back pain. Data were used from a prospective cohort study in a working population with a three year follow-up period. They were collected with annual questionnaires. A generalised estimating equation model was used to study the relation between pain characteristics, individual characteristics, and work-related factors and the recurrence of low-back pain or sickness absence due to low-back pain in the following year. Adjustments were made for potential confounders. According to this study, high disability due to low-back pain is a prognostic factor for recurrent low-back pain and future sickness absence due to low-back pain. In addition, the following work-related factors predict a poor prognosis of low-back pain: flexion or rotation of the trunk, low job satisfaction, low decision authority, and low social support. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.