The Navy Aerosol Model (NAM, available in MODTRAN) is widely used as a tool to assess the aerosol extinction in the marine atmospheric surface layer. NAM was built as a regression model in the 1980s to represent the aerosol extinction at deck height as a function of the meteorological conditions. The recently developed Advanced Navy Aerosol Model (ANAM) utilizes additional experimental evidence to supersede NAM by correcting the underestimation of the concentration of aerosols larger than a few microns. More importantly, ANAM provides the aerosol extinction as a function of height between the surface and several tens of meters. Present-day naval surveillance and threat scenarios require detection of targets at the horizon, such as sea-skimming missiles, or small targets such as rubber boats. In either case, the propagation path from sensor to target is likely to come very close to the wave surface and in order to estimate detection ranges, an assessment of the transmission losses along the path is necessary. To answer the question posed in the title, we assess the two models using two meteorological data sets (784 cases) representative of diverse maritime conditions in regions of interest around the world.