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Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China-Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo-Panda prediction system, version 1

Author: Brasseur, G.P. · Xie, Y. · Petersen, A.K. · Bouarar, I. · Flemming, J. · Gauss, M. · Jiang, F. · Kouznetsov, R. · Kranenburg, R. · Mijling, B. · Peuch, V.H. · Pommier, M. · Segers, A. · Sofiev, M. · Timmermans, R. · A, R. van der · Walters, S. · Xu, J. · Zhou, G.
Type:article
Date:2019
Source:Geoscientific Model Development, 1, 12, 33-67
Identifier: 858052
doi: doi:10.5194/gmd-12-33-2019
Keywords: Environment · Environment & Sustainability · Urbanisation

Abstract

An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality including nine different chemical transport models has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the 37 largest urban areas of China (population higher than 3 million in 2010). These individual forecasts as well as the mean and median concentrations for the next 3 days are displayed on a publicly accessible website http://www.marcopolo-panda.eu, last access: 7 December 2018). The paper describes the forecasting system and shows some selected illustrative examples of air quality predictions. It presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a given period of time (1-15 March 2017) and highlights recurrent differences between the model output as well as systematic biases that appear in the median concentration values. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested. © 2019 Author(s).