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Predictive Mapping of Anti-Social Behaviour

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Author: Smit, S.K. · Vecht, B. van der · Lebesque, L.H.E.M.
Source:European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, XX, XX, XX
Identifier: 520987
doi: doi:10.1007/s10610-014-9259-1
Keywords: Criminology · Data analysis · Environmental criminology. · Machine learning · Predictive modelling · Social behaviour · Demography · Safety and Security · Defence, Safety and Security · Operations Modelling Resilient Organisations · MSG - Modelling Simulation & Gaming MO - Military Operations STL - Sustainable Transport & Logistics · ELSS - Earth, Life and Social Sciences


Predictive mapping of crime and anti-social behaviour is becoming more and more popular as a tool to support police and policy makers. Important ingredients of such models are often demographic and economic characteristics of the area. Since those are hard to influence, we propose to use the environment instead. In this paper, we present a model based on environmental criminology theories that is purely based on the buildings and objects in the neighborhood, such as bars, restaurants and parks. We show the strength and predictive power of this approach on the area of The Hague and Delft and present how the results can be interpreted by policy makers.