Print Email Facebook Twitter Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate Title Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate Author Cheneka, B.R. (TU Delft Wind Energy) Watson, S.J. (TU Delft Wind Energy) Basu, S. (TU Delft Atmospheric Remote Sensing; University at Albany - State University of New York) Date 2023 Abstract Only a few studies on the overall impact of climate change on offshore wind power production and wind power ramps in the North Sea region have been published. This study focuses on the characteristics of expected wind power production and wind power ramps in the future climate aided by the classification of circulations patterns using a self-organizing map (SOM). A SOM is used to cluster high-resolution CMIP5-CORDEX sea level pressure data into 30 European area weather patterns. These patterns are used to better understand wind power production trends and any potential changes. An increased frequency of occurrence and extended persistence of high pressure systems lasting at least 24 h is projected in the future. Whereas a contrasting reducing tendency for low-pressure systems is estimated. No significant evidence is seen for a change in wind power capacity factor over the North Sea, though tentative evidence is seen for a reduction in wind power ramps. Annual energy production is seen to be dominated by a small number of weather patterns with westerly, south-westerly or north-westerly winds. Future wind power production is projected to become less from westerly winds and more from south-westerly and north-westerly flows. Ramp up events are primarily associated with strong south-westerly winds or weather patterns with a weak pressure gradient. Ramp down events have a stronger association with more north-westerly flow. In a future climate, a reduction in ramp up events associated with weak pressure gradients is projected. Subject Climate changeCORDEXNorth SeaSelf-organizing mapsWind ramps To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:27b56abb-8d0b-44d6-aadd-938cde6e5166 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113 Source Energy and Climate Change, 4 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2023 B.R. Cheneka, S.J. Watson, S. Basu Files PDF 1_s2.0_S266627872300020X_main.pdf 7.34 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:27b56abb-8d0b-44d6-aadd-938cde6e5166/datastream/OBJ/view