Print Email Facebook Twitter Reliability updating for lateral failure of historic quay walls Title Reliability updating for lateral failure of historic quay walls Author Hemel, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering; TU Delft Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions) Peters, D.J. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Royal HaskoningDHV) Schweckendiek, T. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Deltares) Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk) Department Hydraulic Engineering Date 2024 Abstract The historic canal walls of Amsterdam, stretching 200 km in total, are constructed as a masonry wall on a timber deck supported by vertical timber piles. Understanding the resistance against lateral failure of these quays has been challenging due to uncertainties in their working principles, geometry, soil and structural properties. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to include evidence from past loading situations and corresponding deformations into the reliability assessment. This approach enables refinement of the reliability predictions and parameter distribution uncertainties, leading to a more accurate prediction of the resistance against the lateral failure of historic quay wall. Depending on the type of evidence, an a-priori reliability prediction for a quay wall that fails to meet safety standards can be updated to any of the three consequence classes outlined in NEN8700. In a case study, a quay wall with an a-priori reliability of β = 1.5 has been increased to β = 3.2 by including evidence of an extreme survived load of 10 kN/m2 that resulted in displacements of less than 4 mm. This is a decrease in failure probability by two orders of magnitude, showing the potential impact of using observational information in combination with Bayesian updating. Subject bacterial deteriorationBayesian approachhistoric quay wallslateral loaded timber pilesReliability updating To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:29d02263-0699-4716-a460-ad53a87a1ab5 DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2024.2302141 ISSN 1749-9518 Source Georisk: assessment and management of risk for engineered systems and geohazards Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2024 M. Hemel, D.J. Peters, T. Schweckendiek, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman Files PDF Reliability_updating_for_ ... _walls.pdf 3.49 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:29d02263-0699-4716-a460-ad53a87a1ab5/datastream/OBJ/view