Print Email Facebook Twitter Updating piping probabilities with survived historical loads Title Updating piping probabilities with survived historical loads Author Schweckendiek, T. Kanning, W. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Hydraulic Engineering Date 2009-11-17 Abstract Piping, also called under-seepage, is an internal erosion mechanism, which can cause the failure of dikes or other flood defence structures. The uncertainty in the resistance of a flood defence against piping is usually large, causing high probabilities of failure for this mechanism. A considerable part of this uncertainty is of epistemic nature, which can be reduced by incorporating extra information. It is shown how the knowledge of historically survived water levels, the main load factor, can be integrated into the probability distribution of the piping resistance variables by means of Bayesian Updating. The effects are demonstrated by means of a realistic numerical example. Subject Bayesian Updatingpipingflood defencesriver dikesreliability To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c530e88-87f1-49cc-97ab-2a32ac5b6826 ISBN 9783000250484 Source Proceedings of the 7th International Probabilistic Workshop : 25-26 November 2009, Delft, the Netherlands Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights (c) 2009 Schweckendiek, T.; Kanning, W. Files PDF 2009_7thIPW_Delft_UpdateP ... _color.pdf 348.41 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:2c530e88-87f1-49cc-97ab-2a32ac5b6826/datastream/OBJ/view