Reachability-Based Confidence-Aware Probabilistic Collision Detection in Highway Driving

Reachability-Based Confidence-Aware Probabilistic Collision Detection in Highway Driving

Wang, X. (TU Delft Learning & Autonomous Control; Queen Mary University of London)
Li, Zirui (Beijing Institute of Technology; Technische Universität Dresden)
Alonso-Mora, J. (TU Delft Learning & Autonomous Control)
Wang, Meng (Technische Universität Dresden)

2024

Risk assessment is a crucial component of collision warning and avoidance systems for intelligent vehicles. Reachability-based formal approaches have been developed to ensure driving safety to accurately detect potential vehicle collisions. However, they suffer from over-conservatism, potentially resulting in false–positive risk events in complicated real-world applications. In this paper, we combine two reachability analysis techniques, a backward reachable set (BRS) and a stochastic forward reachable set (FRS), and propose an integrated probabilistic collision–detection framework for highway driving. Within this framework, we can first use a BRS to formally check whether a two-vehicle interaction is safe; otherwise, a prediction-based stochastic FRS is employed to estimate the collision probability at each future time step. Thus, the framework can not only identify non-risky events with guaranteed safety but also provide accurate collision risk estimation in safety–critical events. To construct the stochastic FRS, we develop a neural network-based acceleration model for surrounding vehicles and further incorporate a confidence-aware dynamic belief to improve the prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments were conducted to validate the performance of the acceleration prediction model based on naturalistic highway driving data. The efficiency and effectiveness of the framework with infused confidence beliefs were tested in both naturalistic and simulated highway scenarios. The proposed risk assessment framework is promising for real-world applications.

Confidence awareness
Probabilistic acceleration prediction
Probabilistic collision detection
Reachability analysis
Risk assessment

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:66bd9eaa-0753-472c-b804-e04611d9a9b4

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2023.10.010

2095-8099

Engineering, 33, 90-107

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2024 X. Wang, Zirui Li, J. Alonso-Mora, Meng Wang