In the face of the current environmental crisis led by the extended use of fossil fuels to cover society’s energy needs, sustainability objectives have been defined around the world. In the European Union, the European Green Deal has emerged as a leading guideline for its member states to achieve energy neutrality by 2050. The Netherlands has acted accordingly establishing its Climate Act, and setting ambitious objectives for this same year. Among these objectives, a full halt in natural gas use finds its way. Considering that the building sector, and specifically households, present a high consumption of energy, it results important to analyze how this sector can reduce its gas consumption and migrate towards the use of renewable heat systems.
The importance of behavioral characteristics and policy conditions that surround households regarding this transition has not been studied in depth in the documented literature and therefore stands as an opportunity area that this thesis covers. For achieving this, an agent-based model was developed using NetLogo, taking into account the characteristics of the Dutch population, being represented in the form of a sample neighborhood. The technical settings available in the model represent mature technologies that are currently in use in the Netherlands, and that can be used collectively or individually. Complementing and supporting these technologies, the Dutch government has made available a series of policy instruments, namely subsidies and credits, that financially support households in acquiring them. The availability of these subsidies is mainly dependent on the type of household ownership and additional factors, which are included in the model.
A behavioral theory known as the theory of planned behavior was implemented to define the households’ behavior. This theory links three elements, namely attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control, to the final intention of households to execute an action. Regarding this specific topic, the study found out that the main beliefs that influence attitude are environmental friendliness, awareness of gas-saving measures, energy independence and economic drive. The subjective norms, which relate to social influence, are represented through the concept of belief dynamics, which develops the idea that social connections can shape a household’s set of beliefs. Finally, perceived behavioral control, which is a measure of the apparent facility to execute a certain action, is reflected in four main external elements, namely the availability of subsidies, the municipality efforts, time availability, and financial capability of households.
The results of the model showed that with the current conditions, the Netherlands would be able to achieve a total of 55% of gas-free households by 2050. This, in turn, would represent a reduction of 45% of the current natural gas being used. To evaluate the extent to which behavioral characteristics and policy conditions influence the heat transition, additional scenarios were developed, where random behavioral attributes were assigned. Following the same line, additional scenarios were defined where the number of available subsidies and the amount awarded per subsidy varied, in addition to a scenario with a higher gas price. These scenarios showed that behavioral characteristics are a very relevant factor and can shape the extent to which the heat transition can be achieved. The policy conditions showed an influence, both in the extent of the heat transition and on the uptake of specific technologies. However, the amount awarded per subsidy and the price of gas showed no relevant differences in gas consumption or technology choice.
The results provide insights into the possibilities for policymakers to ensure that this transition is fulfilled. Policies should target the beliefs of society, either by inducing people into them or by reinforcing them. Besides this, technology choice seems to be directly influenced by the number of subsidies available for each specific technology, which could be useful to target specific technologies that might result more promising than others. Finally, considering that varying the amount awarded per subsidy did not generate a substantial difference, there is a possibility to redefine the subsidy schemes and reallocate this financial means to support the tenants, which is currently the group with the most restricted access to subsidies.