The economic competitiveness of green hydrogen based on its alternatives for the Dutch industry

The economic competitiveness of green hydrogen based on its alternatives for the Dutch industry: A comprehensive overview of the cost development of green hydrogen alternatives in the Dutch process industry from 2021 to 2050

Teluij, Simon (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)

Hakvoort, R.A. (mentor)
Correljé, A. (graduation committee)
Kamp, L.M. (graduation committee)
Posma, Joeri (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

2021-07-13

As the energy transition is starting to accelerate, the Dutch industrial sector is in danger of falling behind with its decarbonisation efforts. Green hydrogen is often suggested as a key-player to decarbonize the industry, replacing fossil fuels used for process heat generation as well as in hydrogen feedstock production. As there are an increasing number of projects that aim to produce green hydrogen and a Dutch hydrogen backbone is scheduled for completion 2030, the question remains how green hydrogen has to be priced in order to be competitive with its alternatives. This research project assesses the economic competitiveness of green hydrogen based on its alternatives towards 2050 for the Dutch industry. It compares four different process heat generation fuels and technologies as well as four hydrogen production alternatives to green hydrogen for hydrogen feedstock production, by using an altered levelized cost of energy method. The costs of these alternatives are based on a 25 year lifetime, assessed over investment in 2021, 2025, 2030 and 2035 with a commodity and CO2 price forecast up to 2065. The results are divided over two scenarios. Scenario I aims to demonstrate the real LCOE for green hydrogen alternatives at the time of investment and Scenario II compares the alternatives from 2021 to 2050 combined with business as usual costs up to the four investment moments. The results show the development of the economic competitiveness of green hydrogen based on the cost development of its alternatives over the coming years. The order of sectors where green hydrogen competitiveness is the highest are high temperature process heat generation, followed by hydrogen feedstock, medium temperature process heat generation and low temperature process heat generation in 2030. It can be seen that fuel costs are by far the largest part of the LCOE of all the alternatives that are assessed, which implies investment decisions ought to be made based on the expected fuel costs and not so much on overnight capital costs of investment. It can also be seen that for the majority of all investigated investment moments for the two scenarios, that the most economically sound investment options simultaneously is the option that contributes most in terms of pollution through CO2. This is a prudent indication that the current free market forces unfortunately do not aid the transition towards a lower polluting industry without nudging or pushing them into the right direction. This implies that well directed policy measures are vital to free market forces to take the first step towards lower pollution. With this research a contribution to science is delivered in assessing and implementing suggestions for improving the LCOE method as well as using the LCOE for process heat generation and hydrogen feedstock production, when comparing fossil fuels with sustainable energy sources across various industrial sectors. A comprehensive overview of the research green hydrogen alternatives presents insights in costs corresponding to four different investment moments for the Dutch industry.

Green hydrogen
Carbon capture and storage
Process Industry
Cost assessment
LCOE

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:951c930d-7d63-468a-b216-0b39569c0f19

Student theses

master thesis

© 2021 Simon Teluij