Title
A study of stone arch bridge’s flood reliability through a surrogate model approach
Author
Baron, Edward A. (Universidade de Coimbra)
Mendoza Cabanzo, Carlos (Universidade de Coimbra)
Bento, Ana Margarida (Universidade do Porto; Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental)
Matos, Jose C. (Universidade de Coimbra)
Calçada, Rui (Universidade do Porto)
Gavin, Kenneth (TU Delft Geo-engineering) 
Date
2024
Abstract
Europe’s historic masonry arch bridges are culturally and economically significant, but their long-term safety must be ensured. Scour effects are the most common cause of collapse, so it is necessary to carry out structural assessments to mitigate the risk and prevent potential failures. In this study, a metamodel-based method was used to determine the probability of failure of an existing stone arch bridge in Portugal due to local and contraction scour on the abutments. Non-linear finite element analysis supported the calculation of the reliability index, which took into account the soil-structure interaction and the failure mechanism. The variables with the greatest influence on the load-carrying capacity of the structure were identified and a surrogate model was implemented. Fragility curves were then derived based on the surrogate model, using scour depth as a measure of intensity and load factor as an engineering requirement parameter. The results of the study indicate that the load capacity of the numerical model is compromised when the scour depth of 1.5 m reaches the base of the foundation. As a result, stability problems and settlements are observed in the model. At a depth of 2.5 m, the soil reaches its ultimate bearing capacity.
Subject
Bridge assessment
flood hazard
fragility curves
non-linear structural analysis
scour
soil-structure interaction
surrogate models
uncertainties
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ddb1a8c0-1d74-4815-b66f-7685d1cbde44
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2024.2318648
Embargo date
2024-08-26
ISSN
1573-2479
Source
Structure & Infrastructure Engineering
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2024 Edward A. Baron, Carlos Mendoza Cabanzo, Ana Margarida Bento, Jose C. Matos, Rui Calçada, Kenneth Gavin