Evaluation of the 3DVAR Operational Implementation of the Colombian Air Force for Aircraft Operations

Evaluation of the 3DVAR Operational Implementation of the Colombian Air Force for Aircraft Operations: A Case Study

Hinestroza Ramirez, Jhon Edinson (Universidad EAFIT; Universidad Tecnológica del Chocó)
Soto Barbosa, Juan Ernesto (Fuerza Aerea Colombiana)
Yarce Botero, A. (TU Delft Atmospheric Remote Sensing; Universidad EAFIT)
Suárez Higuita, Danilo Andrés (Universidad EAFIT)
Lopez-Restrepo, Santiago (Universidad EAFIT)
Cruz Ruiz, Lisseth Milena (Universidad EAFIT)
Sólorzano Araque, Valeria (Universidad EAFIT)
Céspedes, Andres (Fuerza Aerea Colombiana)
Lorduy Hernandez, Sara (Fuerza Aerea Colombiana)

2023

This manuscript introduces an exploratory case study of the SIMFAC’s (Sistema de Información Meteorológica de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana) operational implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme that provides meteorological information for military, public, and private aviation. In particular, it investigates whether the assimilation scheme in SIMFAC’s implementation improves the prediction of the variables of interest compared to the implementation without data assimilation (CTRL). Consequently, this study compares SIMFAC’S 3DVAR-WRF operational implementation in Colombia with a CTRL with the same parameterization (without 3DVAR assimilation) against the ground and satellite observations in two operational forecast windows. The simulations are as long as an operational run, and the evaluation is performed using the root mean square error, the mean fractional bias, the percent bias, the correlation factor, and metrics based on contingency tables. It also evaluates the model’s results according to the regions of Colombia, accounting for the country’s topographical differences. The findings reveal that, in general, the operational forecast (3DVAR) is similar to the CTRL without data assimilation, indicating the need for further improvement of the 3DVAR-WRF implementation.

operational forecast
data assimilation
WRF model

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:df5511c7-8993-431b-9c6c-7612441d4ef8

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070153

2225-1154

Climate, 11 (7)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2023 Jhon Edinson Hinestroza Ramirez, Juan Ernesto Soto Barbosa, A. Yarce Botero, Danilo Andrés Suárez Higuita, Santiago Lopez-Restrepo, Lisseth Milena Cruz Ruiz, Valeria Sólorzano Araque, Andres Céspedes, Sara Lorduy Hernandez, More Authors