Risk-Aware Operating Regions for PV-Rich Distribution Networks Considering Irradiance Variability

Risk-Aware Operating Regions for PV-Rich Distribution Networks Considering Irradiance Variability

Duque, Edgar Mauricio Salazar (Eindhoven University of Technology)
Giraldo, Juan S. (TNO)
Vergara Barrios, P.P. (TU Delft Intelligent Electrical Power Grids)
Nguyen, Phuong H. (Eindhoven University of Technology)
van der Molen, Anne (Eindhoven University of Technology)
Slootweg, J. G. (Eindhoven University of Technology; Enexis B.V.)

2023

This article proposes a framework to identify, visualize, and quantify risk of potential over/under voltage due to annual energy consumption and PV generation growth. The stochastic modeling considers the following: (i) Active and reactive power profiles for distribution transformers, dependent on annual energy consumption and activity in the serviced areas. (ii) Variable solar irradiance profiles that allow a broader range of PV generation scenarios for sunny, overcast, and cloudy days. The proposed framework uses multivariate-t copulas to model temporal correlations between random variables to generate synthetic scenarios. A probabilistic power flow is computed using the generated scenarios to define critical static operating regions. Results show that classical approaches may underestimate the maximum PV capacity of distribution networks when local irradiance conditions are not considered. Moreover, it is found that including annual energy consumption growth is critical to establishing realistic PV installation capacity limits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that taking a 5% of overvoltage risk could increase up to 15% of the PV installed capacity limits.

Multivariate copulas
stochastic modeling
load modeling
irradiance modeling
hosting capacity

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f6c6c118-0f12-4f2c-b1f3-b741c350ac2d

https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2023.3281890

2024-03-20

1949-3029

IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 14 (4), 2092-2108

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2023 Edgar Mauricio Salazar Duque, Juan S. Giraldo, P.P. Vergara Barrios, Phuong H. Nguyen, Anne van der Molen, J. G. Slootweg