Advancing participatory backcasting for climate change adaptation planning using 10 cases from 3 continents

Advancing participatory backcasting for climate change adaptation planning using 10 cases from 3 continents

van der Voorn, Tom (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam)
Quist, J.N. (TU Delft Energy and Industry)
Svenfelt, Åsa (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)
Kok, Kasper (Wageningen University & Research)
Hickman, Robin (University College London)
Sheppard, Stephen (University of British Columbia)
Kanyama, Annika Carlsson (Ecoloop)
Banister, David (University of Oxford)

2023

In the face of climate change, a major challenge is to inform and guide long-term climate change adaptation planning under deep uncertainty, while aiming at transformative change. Normative futures studies approaches, such as participatory backcasting, visioning and transition management, are increasingly applied, but their potential for climate change adaptation research and practice remains undervalued. This paper aims to advance the potential of backcasting in climate adaptation, by comparing various climate change adaptation studies that have used backcasting or visioning approaches. A framework has been further developed and applied to evaluate 10 cases in Africa, Europe and North America, using four dimensions: (i) inputs and settings; (ii) process and methods (iii) results, and (iv), impact. Our evaluation provides key insights into the use and further development of backcasting for climate adaptation. Key elements to add are advanced system modeling, robust elements, pathway switching and hybrid pathways, enhancing participation of marginal groups, and contributing to impact by facilitating the utilization of results and knowledge in practice and decision making.

Backcasting
Climate adaptation
Pathways
Scenarios
Visions

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fd0b4990-04b5-4e14-86f6-d64c5c9a1b35

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100559

Climate Risk Management, 42

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2023 Tom van der Voorn, J.N. Quist, Åsa Svenfelt, Kasper Kok, Robin Hickman, Stephen Sheppard, Annika Carlsson Kanyama, David Banister