Print Email Facebook Twitter Validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model using smartcard data Title Validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model using smartcard data Author Dixit, M. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) Cats, O. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) van Oort, N. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) Brands, T. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) Hoogendoorn, S.P. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) Department Transport and Planning Date 2023 Abstract Validation of travel demand models, although recognised as important, is seldom undertaken. This study adds to the scarce literature in this field by undertaking an external validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model. The model was estimated using smart card data for the urban transit network of Amsterdam before the introduction of a new metro line and is used to predict changes in travel behaviour after the network change. To validate, the model was checked for changes in estimated parameters between the two time periods, and predictive ability was evaluated at different aggregation levels. Although most model parameters were found to be unstable between the two contexts, the predictive performance at all levels was similar to the locally estimated model. Moreover, individual choices and transit mode-share predictions were found to be close to the observed ones. The errors were relatively larger for the link and route-level predictions, some of which could be attributed to the assumptions made regarding consideration choice set given as input to the model. On comparing alternative model specifications, using generic instead of mode-specific travel attributes lead to a strong degradation in predictive performance. Conversely, a model incorporating overlap between routes, with a better model fit in the base period, did not offer a clear improvement in prediction performance. The study highlights the need to validate transit route choice models before using them for deriving policy recommendations, especially in this data-rich age in which it can often be undertaken at a relatively low additional cost. Subject Automated dataEx-post model evaluationModel transferabilityPublic transportRoute choice To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:05cebf1e-f4aa-400c-b22e-329529826618 DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-023-10387-z ISSN 0049-4488 Source Transportation, 1-21 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2023 M. Dixit, O. Cats, N. van Oort, T. Brands, S.P. Hoogendoorn Files PDF s11116_023_10387_z.pdf 1.54 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:05cebf1e-f4aa-400c-b22e-329529826618/datastream/OBJ/view