Print Email Facebook Twitter Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty (discussion paper) Title Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty (discussion paper) Author Pande, S. Arkesteijn, L. Savenije, H.H.G. Bastidas, L.A. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Water Management Date 2014-03-03 Abstract This paper presents evidence that model prediction uncertainty does not necessarily rise with parameter dimensionality (the number of parameters). Here by prediction we mean future simulation of a variable of interest conditioned on certain future values of input variables. We utilize a relationship between prediction uncertainty, sample size and model complexity based on Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) generalization theory. It suggests that models with higher complexity tend to have higher prediction uncertainty for limited sample size. However, model complexity is not necessarily related to the number of parameters. Here by limited sample size we mean a sample size that is limited in representing the dynamics of the underlying processes. Based on VC theory, we demonstrate that model complexity crucially depends on the magnitude of model parameters. We do this by using two model structures, SAC-SMA and its simplification, SIXPAR, and 5 MOPEX basin data sets across the United States. We conclude that parsimonious model selection based on parameter dimensionality may lead to a less informed model choice. Subject OA-Fund TU Delft To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:26237b33-0276-4656-be77-06bf13c594db DOI https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-2555-2014 Publisher European Geosciences Union ISSN 1812-2108 Source http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/11/2555/2014/ Source Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2014 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2014 The Author(s)CC Attribution 3.0 License Files PDF Pande_2014.pdf 365.18 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:26237b33-0276-4656-be77-06bf13c594db/datastream/OBJ/view