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Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement

Ren, X. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Terwel, K.C. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

This study focuses on measuring the influence of critical Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) on human error occurrence in structural design and construction tasks within the context of the Dutch construction industry. The primary research question addressed in this paper concerns the extent of HOFs’ contribution to human error occurrence...

journal article 2024

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Estimates of disease burden caused by foodborne pathogens in contaminated dairy products in Rwanda

Sapp, Amanda C. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Amaya, Mirna P. (author), Niyonzima, Eugène (author), Hategekimana, Jean Paul (author), VanSickle, John J. (author), Gordon, Ronald M. (author), Havelaar, Arie H. (author)

BACKGROUND: The Girinka program in Rwanda has contributed to an increase in milk production, as well as to reduced malnutrition and increased incomes. But dairy products can be hazardous to health, potentially transmitting diseases such as bovine brucellosis, tuberculosis, and cause diarrhea. We analyzed the burden of foodborne disease due to...

journal article 2023

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Shrinking the Variance in Experts’ “Classical” Weights Used in Expert Judgment Aggregation

Dharmarathne, Gayan (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Robinson, Andrew (author), Hanea, Anca M. (author)

Mathematical aggregation of probabilistic expert judgments often involves weighted linear combinations of experts’ elicited probability distributions of uncertain quantities. Experts’ weights are commonly derived from calibration experiments based on the experts’ performance scores, where performance is evaluated in terms of the calibration and...

journal article 2023

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Editorial: Multivariate Probabilistic Modelling for Risk and Decision Analysis

Hanea, Anca Maria (author), Nane, G.F. (author)

contribution to periodical 2022

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Burden of foodborne disease due to bacterial hazards associated with beef, dairy, poultry meat, and vegetables in Ethiopia and Burkina Faso, 2017

Havelaar, Arie H. (author), Sapp, Amanda C. (author), Amaya, Mirna P. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Morgan, Kara M. (author), Devleesschauwer, Brecht (author), Grace, Delia (author), Knight-Jones, Theo (author), Kowalcyk, Barbara B. (author)

Foodborne disease is a significant global health problem, with low- and middle-income countries disproportionately affected. Given that most fresh animal and vegetable foods in LMICs are bought in informal food systems, much the burden of foodborne disease in LMIC is also linked to informal markets. Developing estimates of the national burden...

journal article 2022

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COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: Growth, open access and scientific fields

Nane, G.F. (author), Robinson Garcia, N. (author), van Schalkwyk, François (author), Torres-Salinas, Daniel (author)

We model the growth of scientific literature related to COVID-19 and forecast the expected growth from 1 June 2021. Considering the significant scientific and financial efforts made by the research community to find solutions to end the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented volume of scientific outputs is being produced. This questions the...

journal article 2022

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A retrospective assessment of COVID-19 model performance in the USA

Colonna, Kyle J. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Choma, Ernani F. (author), Cooke, R.M. (author), Evans, John S. (author)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts from over 100 models are readily available. However, little published information exists regarding the performance of their uncertainty estimates (i.e. probabilistic performance). To evaluate their probabilistic performance, we employ the classical model (CM), an established method typically used...

journal article 2022

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Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study

Sapp, Amanda C. (author), Amaya, Mirna P. (author), Havelaar, Arie H. (author), Nane, G.F. (author)

Background According to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary. Objective We present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli...

journal article 2022

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Using the Classical Model for Source Attribution of Pathogen-Caused Illnesses: Lessons from Conducting an Ample Structured Expert Judgment Study

Beshearse, Elizabeth (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Havelaar, Arie H. (author)

A recent ample Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) study quantified the source attribution of 33 distinct pathogens in the United States. The source attribution for five transmission pathways: food, water, animal contact, person-to-person, and environment has been considered. This chapter will detail how SEJ has been applied to answer questions...

book chapter 2021

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Uncertainty Quantification with Experts: Present Status and Research Needs

Hanea, Anca M. (author), Hemming, Victoria (author), Nane, G.F. (author)

Expert elicitation is deployed when data are absent or uninformative and critical decisions must be made. In designing an expert elicitation, most practitioners seek to achieve best practice while balancing practical constraints. The choices made influence the required time and effort investment, the quality of the elicited data, experts’...

journal article 2021

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Quantitative risk analysis of a hazardous jet fire event for hydrogen transport in natural gas transmission pipelines

Froeling, H. A.J. (author), Dröge, M. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), van Wijk, A.J.M. (author)

With the advent of large-scale application of hydrogen, transportation becomes crucial. Reusing the existing natural gas transmission system could serve as catalyst for the future hydrogen economy. However, a risk analysis of hydrogen transmission in existing pipelines is essential for the deployment of the new energy carrier. This paper...

journal article 2021

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Attribution of illnesses transmitted by food and water to comprehensive transmission pathways using structured expert judgment, United States

Beshearse, Elizabeth (author), Bruce, Beau B. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Cooke, Roger M. (author), Aspinall, Willy (author), Hald, Tine (author), Crim, Stacy M. (author), Griffin, Patricia M. (author), Fullerton, Kathleen E. (author)

Illnesses transmitted by food and water cause a major disease burden in the United States despite advancements in food safety, water treatment, and sanitation. We report estimates from a structured expert judgment study using 48 experts who applied Cooke's classical model of the proportion of disease attributable to 5 major transmission...

journal article 2021

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An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model

Hanea, Anca M. (author), Nane, G.F. (author)

The Classical Model (CM) or Cooke’s method for performing Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) is the best-known method that promotes expert performance evaluation when aggregating experts’ assessments of uncertain quantities. Assessing experts’ performance in quantifying uncertainty involves two scores in CM, the calibration score (or...

book chapter 2021

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Decision-Making in Early Internationalization: A Structured Expert Judgement Approach

Zdziarski, Michał (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Król, Grzegorz (author), Kowalczyk, Katarzyna (author), Kuźmińska, Anna O. (author)

The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil...

book chapter 2021

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Improving Subsurface Asset Failure Predictions for Utility Operators: A Unique Case Study on Cable and Pipe Failures Resulting from Excavation Work

Wijs, R. J.A. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Leontaris, G. (author), Van Manen, T. R.W. (author), Wolfert, A.R.M. (author)

Utility operators must rely on predictive analyses regarding the availability of their subsurface assets, which highly depend on damage by increasing amounts of excavation work. However, straightforward use of standard statistical techniques, such as logistic regression or Bayesian logistic regression, does not allow for accurate predictions...

journal article 2020

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Return level analysis of the hanumante river using structured expert judgment: A reconstruction of historical water levels

Kindermann, P.E. (author), Brouwer, Wietske S. (author), van Hamel, A. (author), van Haren, Mick (author), Verboeket, Rik P. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Lakhe, Hanik (author), Prajapati, Rajaram (author), Davids, J.C. (author)

Like other cities in the Kathmandu Valley, Bhaktapur faces rapid urbanisation and population growth. Rivers are negatively impacted by uncontrolled settlements in flood-prone areas, lowering permeability, decreasing channels widths, and waste blockage. All these issues, along with more extreme rain events during the monsoon due to climate...

journal article 2020

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Statistical models for improving significant wave height predictions in offshore operations

Emmanouil, Stergios (author), Aguilar, Sandra Gaytan (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Schouten, Jan Joost (author)

Installation and maintenance strategies regarding offshore wind farm operations involve extensive logistics. The main focus is the right temporal and spatial placement of personnel and equipment, while taking into account forecasted meteorological and ocean conditions. For these operations to be successful, weather windows characterized by...

journal article 2020

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Task specialization across research careers

Robinson Garcia, N. (author), Costas, Rodrigo (author), Sugimoto, Cassidy R. (author), Larivière, Vincent (author), Nane, G.F. (author)

Research careers are typically envisioned as a single path in which a scientist starts as a member of a team working under the guidance of one or more experienced scientists and, if they are successful, ends with the individual leading their own research group and training future generations of scientists. Here we study the author...

journal article 2020

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Calibrating experts’ probabilistic assessments for improved probabilistic predictions

Hanea, A.M. (author), Nane, G.F. (author)

Expert judgement is routinely required to inform critically important decisions. While expert judgement can be remarkably useful when data are absent, it can be easily influenced by contextual biases which can lead to poor judgements and subsequently poor decisions. Structured elicitation protocols aim to: (1) guard against biases and provide...

journal article 2019

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Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context

Hanea, A.M. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Wielicki, B.A. (author), Cooke, R.M. (author)

Probabilistic thinking can often be unintuitive. This is the case even for simple problems, let alone the more complex ones arising in climate modelling, where disparate information sources need to be combined. The physical models, the natural variability of systems, the measurement errors and their dependence upon the observational period...

journal article 2018