Stress-testing banks under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess bank performance under deep uncertainty and identify vulnerabilities to different types of risks. Banks are not the safe houses of old. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are permanently at risk due to internal and external stresses and...

Using Small Models for Big Issues: Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management

The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security. The need for exploratory approaches is first of...

The Influenza A(H1N1)v Pandemic: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

This paper presents a small exploratory System Dynamics model related to the dynamics of the 2009 flu pandemic, also known as the Mexican flu, swine flu, or A(H1N1)v. The model was developed in May 2009 in order to quickly foster understanding about the possible dynamics of this new flu variant and to perform rough-cut policy explorations. Later...