Transmission Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty: Model support in evaluating lon-term investment plans in interconnections

The electricity transmission system, lynchpin of the power system chain, has been recognized to play a significant role in fulfilling policy targets such as high integration levels of renewable energy sources, reduction of CO2 emissions, lower electricity costs and increased security of supply. In the European context, cross-border transmission...

Strategy to facilitate EV infrastructure on local level

The amount of electric vehicles is increasing due to measures taken by governments in order to make a, for sustainability, desired switch from the embedded system of combustion vehicles. A barrier for the market adaptation of electric vehicles is the availability of a charging infrastructure. In the Netherlands municipalities are responsible for...

Non-deterministic networked infrastructure design of multiple sources and multiple sinks

Networked infrastructures such as gas and water pipelines, roads, railroads or power grids provide essential utilities and services to society. Common characteristics of such infrastructures include high capital costs, generally long lifetimes and irreversibility once the construction of such networks have finished. In the design of these...

Uncertainties in Building with Nature along the Coast: A case study of a sand nourishment project in Ystad, Sweden

Coastal erosion is a natural process caused by the actions of current and waves towards coastlines. Building with Nature (BwN), is an emerging methodology that utilizes natural process and natural materials to reduce the impacts of coastal erosion on nature and society. Because of the involvement of natural materials and natural processes, BwN...

In search for robustness: Combining System Dynamics and exploratory Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis

System Dynamics and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis are two decision aid methods that aim at helping decision makers to better understand the world through formal models and computations. System Dynamics with the use of feedback loops and time delays helps to understand the behavior of a system and how the various elements affect this behavior....

Alternative approaches to financing innovation

Introduction – The principle of shareholder value maximization raises concerns about reduced levels of investment in innovation (Lazonick, 2011a). Since shareholder value maximization entails to maximize profits for the shareholders of corporations, the principle is connected to the allocation of capital in markets. There are concerns about the...

Financial Stress Testing: A model based exploration under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess the performance of banks and explore the resilience of the banking system under adverse futures. Banks are not the safe houses everyone believed them to be, as the recent crisis of 2007 showed. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are...

Credit to SMEs? Robust Lending Decisions with Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis

This project’s commissioner, the head of ING’s emerging markets credit trading desk developed a loan structure called Revenue Participation Loan to fit the needs of SMEs in emerging markets. He now wants to combine this new product with innovation in his approach to uncertainty. With these types of loans SMEs agree to pay a fixed percentage of...

Long term planning for the water supply system of the Metropolitan Area of Amsterdam under new water saving regimes of the retail customers: Understanding the system and addressing uncertainties

The centralized drinking water supply system of the Metropolitan Area of Amsterdam, operated and owned mainly by Waternet, has high performance indicators and satisfies the full demand for water in the urban grid and surrounding areas on a full cost recovery basis. Social and technological developments, stemming mainly from (i) the increasing...

On Track in Reducing Uncertainties: Exploration of the Value of the HAZOP Methodology as a Tool for Decision Makers at ProRail involved in Multi-Actor Decision Making

ProRail is the railway management company of the Netherlands. It is responsible for the construction, maintenance, management, and safety of the Dutch railway system. ProRail has as a goal an annual five per cent increase in the number of transported passengers up to 2020. This goal cannot be reached with the current way of transporting...

Development of a system for 'Sustainable Fuel from Digested Manure' Financial feasibility study for the Salland region

A financial feasibility study into the development of a 'sustainable fuel from digested manure' system for the Salland region within the Province of Overijssel in the Netherlands. This is a specific variant of a green gas hub system, which produces sustainable fuel as end product. To deal with challenges and uncertainties in the development the ...

Dealing with Investment Uncertainties in the European Natural Gas Market: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model for the European Natural Gas Market

New developments in the gas market urge public and private concerns to gain deeper insight into how this market is functioning. The Energy Research Center of the Netherlands (ECN), as a leading research institute, has developed a deterministic model representing the European gas market called GASTALE. Based on this model, this research has been...