How We Change Our Minds Matters: Misinformation, ABMs, and Deep Uncertainty

Misinformation on social media is an urgent grand challenge. Misinformation has caused excess deaths because people abstain from getting vaccinated and other evidence-based prevention behaviors. Misinformation also influences various other important topics such as climate change. And it has the potential to influence countless other areas. In...

Accounting for distributive justice in Integrated Assessment Models: Towards a more equitable climate policy agenda

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are widely used tools for estimating climate change's impacts on the socio-economic system. However, IAMs possess a limited ability to represent the impact on vulnerable populations. Influential IAMs use highly aggregated outcomes masking significant relative differences in impacts across heterogeneous...

A dependent sampling approach to Scenario Discovery

The use of scenario planning has a long history in decision-making and public policy (Bryant and Lempert, 2010). Traditional scenario planning, as, for example, used by the Shell Scenarios group, provides tools to communicate and characterize uncertainty,allowing decision-makers to anticipate the future and create more robust strategies ...

Uncertainty in Long-Term Grid Planning: Approaching Transmission Expansion Planning through the Framework of Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Motivations for sustainability are initiating an energy transition that is changing the European energy domain. The transition effectuated the adaptation of large volumes of wind and solar based generation capacity. The intermittent power-output of these Variable Renewable Energy Sources challenges the balancing operation of the electricity...

Redefining Integrated Assessment Models: An Exploratory Approach Towards Robust Climate-Economic Policies

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are aiming to shed light on the cost-benefit of climate mitigations. However, current IAMs are depicted with a wide range of weaknesses. Next, to questionable assumptions of model functions, such as the damage function, IAMs are inadequate at addressing deeply uncertain parameters, such as the equilibrium...