Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for flood risk management in Galveston Bay: Making informed flood defence decisions for an uncertain future

Making decisions when future conditions are uncertain is a challenging endeavor. This thesis develops a framework to analyse flood risk and create Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, which can provide insights in the behaviour of flood risk protection measures in many future scenarios. The pathways are used to identify robust measures, dead ends...

Dynamic Adaptive Epidemic Control: A case study of anticipatory action to cholera outbreaks in Cameroon

Responding rapidly to epidemic outbreaks presents significant challenges, due to resource, capacity and time limitations. Anticipatory Action (AA) is a newly emerging strategy in the field of humanitarian aid, designed to preemptively address potential crises. By taking impact-reducing actions before a disaster strikes, AA seeks to minimize...

Spatial Adaptive Policy Pathways for rainwater resilient spatial redesign for urban areas

In this research, the use of spatially applied adaptive pathways for rainwater resilient redesign of urban areas is investigated. It is explored how adaptive pathways can contribute to the integration of the climate stress of pluvial flooding in the planning process for the redesign of existing urban areas. This is done by developing adaptive...

Climate Adaptive Delta Cities: A strategy for the transition towards climate adaptive redevelopment of post-industrial port sites in the Rhine-Meuse delta in the Netherlands - The case of De Staart in Dordrecht

The climate crisis will require far-stretching changes to our urban systems, also called a transition. However, the direction in which our society will transition is still deeply uncertain. To become less vulnerable, cities and urban areas need to increase their adaptive capacity, establishing an evolutionarily resilient region. Delta cities in...

Rescaling climate-induced migration: Exploring pathways for an uncertain future

This thesis explores alternative spatial- and governance responses to deal with climate-induced migration as a result of slow-onset climate change in the southern California border region with Mexico. These responses will be specifically aimed to mitigate and adapt to a future that may see displacement as a result of changing environmental...

Infrastructure life cycle management under climate change uncertainty: A new dynamic method applied to road tunnels in the Netherlands

Objective: Static long-term decision-making processes for road assets adaptation on the dynamic effects of climate change seem to be ineffective because the proposed proactive measures might not address the actual climate at the fixed date the decision-maker imposes them to be implemented but by giving a time range of expected implementation in...

Low polders and high waters: Dealing with uncertainties of climate change in future polder management

It is no secret that the climate is changing, however, the severity and speed of this process is under debate. This leads to the question if and when we need to take action to protect the Netherlands against the effects of climate change. In order to deal with the uncertainties in policy- and decision-making, an adaptive approach is desirable....

Living Edges: Embracing adaptability as opportunity for creating living edges in the Province of Zuid-Holland

To help combat climate change, promote sustainable development and match the goals set in the Paris Agreement, the Province of Zuid-Holland wants to transition to a circular economy. To make this transition successful, the Province ought to adopt an integrative approach, addressing other elements such as socio-spatial inequality, pressure for...

Drowning Deltas: A strategical spatial approach to soil subsidence in delta regions

Delta cities all around the world are under pressure from different forms of climate change effects. Soil subsidence as a result of peat oxidation, and anthropogenic loading of the soil. The soil in many of the heavily urbanised deltas around the world is subsiding faster than the see level is rising as a result of climate change. Few people are...

How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation

Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by...

The path towards Modern Urban Renewal: Adaptive reconstruction process after tsunami disaster in coastal cities of Japan

Japan has a vast history of earthquake and tsunami disasters that Japan had to cope with, the country can be defined as a disaster society. The most recent disaster, The Great East Japan Earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0, resulted in a tsunami which had a devastating effect on the coastal regions of Tohoku. However, these crisis situations also...

Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...