An Idealized Meteorological-Hydrodynamic Model for Exploring Extreme Storm Surge Statistics in the North Sea

This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at the North Sea. The intent of this method is to...

Mean normalized force computation for different types of obstacles due to dam break using statistical techniques

The dam-break induced loads and their effects on buildings are of vital importance for assessing the vulnerability of buildings in flood-prone areas. A comprehensive methodology, for risk assessment of buildings subject to flooding, is nevertheless still missing. This research aims to take a step forward by following previous research. To this...

Flood damage estimation for downtown Shanghai sensitivity analysis

Flood damage estimation is essential to flood risk analysis. Flood hazards, values of elements at risk and vulnerability of elements determine flood damage. However, these determinants entail uncertainties. In this study, water depth, values of elements at risk and damage function are selected as three key parameters. The local sensitivity...

Influence of a storm surge barrier’s operation on the flood frequency in the Rhine Delta area

The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area...

Constructing Cartesian Splines

We introduce here Cartesian splines or, for short, C-splines. C-splines are piecewise polynomials which are defined on adjacent Cartesian coordinate systems and are Cr continuous throughout. The Cr continuity is enforced by constraining the coefficients of the polynomial to lie in the null-space of some smoothness matrix H . The matrix-product...

Optimal inspection planning with time-dependent reliability analysis, application to rubble-mound breakwaters

In order to avoid failure in its lifetime, a breakwater system has to be inspected and, if necessary, has to be repaired. In this paper, a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning is formulated. Rational maintenance decision-making approaches are discussed. The proposed maintenance strategy combines time-dependent and...

Optimal inspection strategy for rubble-mound breakwaters with time-dependent reliability analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning and its application to rubble mound breakwaters. In order to fulfil designated functions, a breakwater has to be inspected during its lifetime and has to be repaired if necessary. Actions of inspecting and repairing form a maintenance strategy. In the paper...

Preliminary reliability analysis of flood defences in the pilot site ’Scheldt’

This report describes the flood defence structures of the pilot site River Schelde Estuary and the overall probability of failure of all flood defences in the area. First, the flood prone area is briefly described as follows: ? the flood prone area ? the failures observed in the past ? an overview of all defence structures ? the flood defence...

Reliability Analysis of Flood and Sea Defence Structures and Systems

Risk identification consists of defining the hazard, loss causing event E, probability P(E) of that event, perception Pe(E,P(E)) and consequences C(Pe) of that perception. Risk identification is followed by risk management, whose purpose is to mitigate the risks, for example by reducing P(E) or C(Pe) and providing suitable risk communication to...

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...

Reliability Analysis of Flood Sea Defence Structures and Systems (Appendices)

Risk identification consists of defining the hazard, loss causing event E, probability P(E) of that event, perception Pe(E,P(E)) and consequences C(Pe) of that perception. Risk identification is followed by risk management, whose purpose is to mitigate the risks, for example by reducing P(E) or C(Pe) and providing suitable risk communication to...

Reliability Analysis of Flood Sea Defence Structures and Systems

Risk identification consists of defining the hazard, loss causing event E, probability P(E) of that event, perception Pe(E,P(E)) and consequences C(Pe) of that perception. Risk identification is followed by risk management, whose purpose is to mitigate the risks, for example by reducing P(E) or C(Pe) and providing suitable risk communication to...

Conceptual design for the breakwater system of the south of Doson naval base: Optimisation versus deterministic design

In 2006 a Vietnamese Engineering Consultancy Company carried out a design study of a Naval Base at the location of the South of Doson Peninsula in Vietnam. A deterministic approach applied to the conceptual design of the breakwater system of the Naval Base resulted in a cross-section with a big armour layer and a rather low crest level. This...

Robust detection of discordant sites in regional frequency analysis

The discordancy measure in terms of the sample L?moment ratios (L?CV, L?skewness, L?kurtosis) of the at?site data is widely recommended in the screening process of atypical sites in the regional frequency analysis (RFA). The sample mean and the covariance matrix of the L?moments ratios, on which the discordancy measure is based, are not robust...

Reliability of Sheet Pile Walls And The Influence of Corrosion: Structural Reliability Analysis with Finite Elements

The Finite Element Method is well accepted in design practice nowadays. It can be used for modeling complex structures and systems. The constitutive models are improving, which enables us to make more accurate predictions of the real world behavior. On the other hand, especially in the field of geotechnical engineering, the uncertainties in the...

Risk based design of civil structures

The Art and Science of Model Building: A Bayesian Approach, by Prof. A. Der Kiureghian; The talk will describe a Bayesian approach to developing models, with special emphasis on limit-state models for reinforced concrete structures. The formulation can incorporate all kinds of information (theoretical models, laboratory experiments, field...

Vergelijking van afslagrisico's kustzone met risico's elders in Nederland

Om een beeld te krijgen van de relatieve omvang van het risico verbonden met afslag aan de kust heeft RIKZ het initiatief genomen voor het laten uitvoeren van een onderzoek gericht op een vergelijking van de risico’s in de afslagzone met watergebonden risico’s elders in Nederland. Met watergebonden risico’s worden de risico’s bij overstroming...

Statistical methods for the risk-based design of civil structures