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Coastal adaptation and migration dynamics under future shoreline changes

Tierolf, Lars (author), Haer, Toon (author), Athanasiou, Panagiotis (author), Luijendijk, Arjen (author), Botzen, W. J. Wouter (author), Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. (author)

In this study, we present a novel modeling framework that provides a stylized representation of coastal adaptation and migration dynamics under sea level rise (SLR). We develop an agent-based model that simulates household and government agents adapting to shoreline change and increasing coastal flood risk. This model is coupled to a gravity...

journal article 2024

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Risk based portfolio planning of dike reinforcements

den Heijer, F. (author), Kok, M. (author)

A system of dikes in flood-prone areas continuously requires measures to mitigate changes such as ageing and climate change. Planning costly measures requires proper insight into system risk effects. Especially in a riverine dike system, the risk contributions of individual assets to the system flood risks are not independent, because...

journal article 2023

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Damage Curves Derived from Hurricane Ike in the West of Galveston Bay Based on Insurance Claims and Hydrodynamic Simulations

Xu, Chaoran (author), Nelson-Mercer, Benjamin T. (author), Bricker, J.D. (author), Davlasheridze, Meri (author), Ross, Ashley D. (author), Jia, Jianjun (author)

Hurricane Ike, which struck the United States in September 2008, was the ninth most expensive hurricane in terms of damages. It caused nearly USD 30 billion in damage after making landfall on the Bolivar Peninsula, Texas. We used the Delft3d-FM/SWAN hydrodynamic and spectral wave model to simulate the storm surge inundation around Galveston...

journal article 2023

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Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system

Rongen, G.W.F. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Kok, M. (author)

The Wettelijk Beoordelingsinstrumentarium (WBI) is the legal set of instruments for flood risk analysis in the Netherlands. Often, engineers have the impression that some failure probabilities of flood defenses resulting from these instruments are overestimated. In an effort to better estimate the failure probabilities of dikes along the...

journal article 2022

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Flood risk reduction by parallel flood defences – Case-study of a coastal multifunctional flood protection zone

Marijnissen, Richard J.C. (author), Kok, M. (author), Kroeze, Carolien (author), van Loon-Steensma, J.M. (author)

In this paper the safety of a double-dike system (or twin dikes) is assessed. Such a system consist of two parallel lines of flood defences. During storms the combined strength of the parallel flood defences must prevent flooding of the hinterland. A culvert can be implemented for the tidal exchange of sea water to enable new land-uses in the...

journal article 2021

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Return level analysis of the hanumante river using structured expert judgment: A reconstruction of historical water levels

Kindermann, P.E. (author), Brouwer, Wietske S. (author), van Hamel, A. (author), van Haren, Mick (author), Verboeket, Rik P. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Lakhe, Hanik (author), Prajapati, Rajaram (author), Davids, J.C. (author)

Like other cities in the Kathmandu Valley, Bhaktapur faces rapid urbanisation and population growth. Rivers are negatively impacted by uncontrolled settlements in flood-prone areas, lowering permeability, decreasing channels widths, and waste blockage. All these issues, along with more extreme rain events during the monsoon due to climate...

journal article 2020

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Adaptive asset management for flood protection: The FAIR framework in action

Vonk, Bart (author), Klerk, W.J. (author), Fröhle, Peter (author), Gersonius, Berry (author), Heijer, Frank Den (author), Jordan, Philipp (author), Ciocan, Ulf Radu (author), Rijke, Jeroen (author), Sayers, Paul (author), Ashley, Richard (author)

Uncertainties about climate change consequences, changing societal requirements and system complexity require flood protection asset managers to continuously evaluate their asset management policies and practice to manage risk and improve the resilience of their assets. However, there are many challenges in doing this, with asset operators...

journal article 2020

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An analytical process-based approach to predicting breach width in levees constructed from dilatant soils

van Damme, M. (author)

An accurate prediction of the breach widening rate after the onset of a levee failure is essential for flood risk assessments. Current state-of-the-art analytical breach growth relations are empirical in nature. The large variety in loading conditions, levee design, and levee construction material, combined with the limited amount of accurate...

journal article 2020

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Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River

Curran, A.N. (author), de Bruijn, K.M. (author), Domeneghetti, Alessio (author), Bianchi, Federica (author), Kok, M. (author), Vorogushyn, Sergiy (author), Castellarin, Attilio (author)

Reliable hazard analysis is crucial in the flood risk management of river basins. For the floodplains of large, developed rivers, flood hazard analysis often needs to account for the complex hydrology of multiple tributaries and the potential failure of dikes. Estimating this hazard using deterministic methods ignores two major aspects of...

journal article 2020

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How natural processes contribute to flood protection: A sustainable adaptation scheme for a wide green dike

Marijnissen, Richard (author), Esselink, Peter (author), Kok, M. (author), Kroeze, Carolien (author), van Loon-Steensma, J.M. (author)

Effective adaptation to sea-level rise is critical for future flood protection. Nature-based solutions including salt marshes have been proposed to naturally enhance coastal infrastructure. A gently sloping grass-covered dike (i.e. Wide Green Dike) can be strengthened with clay accumulating locally in the salt marsh. This study explores the...

journal article 2020

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Salt marshes for flood risk reduction: Quantifying long-term effectiveness and life-cycle costs

Vuik, V. (author), Borsje, Bas W. (author), Willemsen, Pim W.J.M. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author)

Flood risks are increasing worldwide due to climate change and ongoing economic and demographic development in coastal areas. Salt marshes can function as vegetated foreshores that reduce wave loads on coastal structures such as dikes and dams, thereby mitigating current and future flood risk. This paper aims to quantify long-term (100 years)...

journal article 2019

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Commentary: The need for a high-accuracy, open-access global DEM

Winsemius, H.C. (author), Ward, Philip J. (author), Gayton, Ivan (author), ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire (author), Meijer, D.H. (author), Iliffe, Mark (author)

A Commentary on 'The Need for a High-Accuracy, Open-Access Global DEM' by Schumann, G. J.-P., and Bates, P. D. (2018). Front. Earth Sci. 6:225. doi: 10.3389/feart.2018.00225

journal article 2019

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Collaborative spatial planning in the face of flood risk in delta cities: A policy framing perspective

Meng, M. (author), Dabrowski, M.M. (author), Tai, Y. (author), Stead, D. (author), Chan, Faith (author)

Integration of flood risk in spatial planning is increasingly seen as a way to enhance cities’ resilience to the growing flood hazards, albeit its operationalisation remains challenging. This study aims to explain the reasons for this difficulty through the case study of Guangzhou, a Chinese delta city that is highly vulnerable to coastal,...

journal article 2019

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Impact of including interdependencies between multiple riverine flood defences on the economically optimal flood safety levels

Dupuits, E.J.C. (author), Klerk, W.J. (author), Schweckendiek, T. (author), de Bruijn, K. M. (author)

In risk analysis of riverine flood defence systems, sections of flood defences are often considered separately, herewith ignoring their interdependence, e.g. due to the hydraulic response following dike breaches in the system. In previous studies it has been found that such interdependence can have a significant influence on flood risk estimates...

journal article 2019

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Developments in the management of flood defences and hydraulic infrastructure in the Netherlands

Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author), Voortman, H.G. (author), Klerk, W.J. (author), van Vuren, S. (author)

This article highlights recent developments in flood risk management in the Netherlands and presents approaches for reliability analysis and asset management for flood defences and hydraulic infrastructure. The functioning of this infrastructure is of great importance for the country as large parts of it are prone to flooding. Based on a...

journal article 2018

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An interdisciplinary approach to urban reconstruction after the 2011 Tsunami

Hooimeijer, F.L. (author), Bricker, J.D. (author), Iuchi, Kanako (author)

Students of hydraulic engineering, geotechnical engineering, transport infrastructure, urban drainage engineering and urbanism studied the recovery of the city of Yuriage using the goal integration method. Much can be learned from the bold approach of the Japanese to disaster reconstruction and fighting shrinkage in regional spatial planning.

journal article 2018

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Vernacular architecture inspires flood-proof housing

Ham, P.H. (author)

Urbanisation in Southeast Asia has to cope with land subsidence, rain floods, clogged rivers, storm surges and typhoons. On particular locations, like in the deserted fish ponds in the Manila Bay Area in the Philippines, floating housing can be an attractive building style. PhD researcher Pieter Ham and Finch Floating Homes are inspired by...

journal article 2018

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Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries

Ward, Philip J. (author), Couasnon, Anais (author), Eilander, Dirk (author), Haigh, Ivan D (author), Hendry, Alistair (author), Muis, Sanne (author), Veldkamp, Ted I.E. (author), Winsemius, H.C. (author), Wahl, Thomas (author)

When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter,...

journal article 2018

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Risk-based decision-making for evacuation in case of imminent threat of flooding

Kolen, B. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

It is important for decision-makers in emergency response situations to determine the scope, scale, timing, path and resettlement area of an evacuation decision when there is an imminent threat of flooding. In this paper, a method called the "Evacuation Diagram" is described to support risk-based evacuation planning and decision-making. In...

journal article 2018

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Applying a Bayesian network based on Gaussian copulas to model the hydraulic boundary conditions for hurricane flood risk analysis in a coastal watershed

Sebastian, Antonia (author), Dupuits, E.J.C. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)

In recent years significant emphasis has been placed on quantifying coastal flood hazards in the U.S. using high resolution 2-D hydrodynamic and nearshore wave models. However, these studies are computationally expensive and often neglect to consider the flooding that arises from the combined hazards of precipitation and storm surge in coastal...

journal article 2017