A market for trading forecasts: A wagering mechanism

In many areas of industry and society, including energy, healthcare, and logistics, agents collect vast amounts of data that are deemed proprietary. These data owners extract predictive information of varying quality and relevance from data depending on quantity, inherent information content, and their own technical expertise. Aggregating...

On the use of distribution-adaptive likelihood functions: Generalized and universal likelihood functions, scoring rules and multi-criteria ranking

This paper is concerned with the formulation of an adequate likelihood function in the application of Bayesian epistemology to uncertainty quantification of hydrologic models. We focus our attention on a special class of likelihood functions (hereinafter referred to as distribution-adaptive likelihood functions), which do not require prior...