A decision support system for use of probability forecasts

Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers’ increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based...

A Very Long Term Forecast of the Port Throughput in the Le Havre - Hamburg Range up to 2100

This paper presents a new methodology for the development of a probabilistic very long term forecast of the total port throughput in the Le Havre – Hamburg range up to 2100. The forecast is based on a combination of System Dynamic Modelling, Judgement, and Causal Relations. It is intended to provide infrastructure planners with some guidance on...