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Peled, Inon (author), Lee, Kelvin (author), Jiang, Yu (author), Dauwels, J.H.G. (author), Pereira, Francisco C. (author)As Public Transport (PT) becomes more dynamic and demand-responsive, it increasingly depends on predictions of transport demand. But how accurate need such predictions be for effective PT operation? We address this question through an experimental case study of PT trips in Metropolitan Copenhagen, Denmark, which we conduct independently of any...journal article 2021
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Zdziarski, Michał (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Król, Grzegorz (author), Kowalczyk, Katarzyna (author), Kuźmińska, Anna O. (author)The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil...book chapter 2021
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van der Heijden, T.J.T. (author), Lago, Jesus (author), Palensky, P. (author), Abraham, E. (author)In this manuscript we explore European feature importance in Day Ahead Market (DAM) price forecasting models, and show that model performance can deteriorate when too many features are included due to over-fitting. We propose a greedy algorithm to search over candidate countries for European features to be used in a DAM price forecasting model,...journal article 2021
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Xenochristou, Maria (author), Hutton, Chris (author), Hofman, Jan (author), Kapelan, Z. (author)This study utilizes a rich UK data set of smart demand metering data, household characteristics, and weather data to develop a demand forecasting methodology that combines the high accuracy of machine learning models with the interpretability of statistical methods. For this reason, a random forest model is used to predict daily demands 1 day...journal article 2021
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Lago, Jesus (author), Marcjasz, Grzegorz (author), De Schutter, B.H.K. (author), Weron, Rafał (author)While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique, not publicly available datasets and across too short and limited to one market test samples. The...review 2021
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Haji Aghajany, S. (author), Amerian, Yazdan (author)Tropospheric signals are considered as one of the most important performance limitations to compute the deformations caused by earthquake, subsidence, volcano, and so on using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique. Various correction methods have been proposed to reduce the effect of these signals in displacement fields...journal article 2020
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van Haaften, M.A. (author), Lefter, I. (author), Lukosch, H.K. (author), van Kooten, O. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author)Background. Revealing tacit knowledge often is seen as very valuable for organizations, although it is usually challenging to enunciate and share this type of knowledge. Methods. This study uses a participatory design and the application of a board gaming simulation as instruments to extract tacit knowledge. To illustrate this application,...journal article 2020
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Polyportis, A. (author), Kokkinaki, Flora (author), Horváth, Csilla (author), Christopoulos, Georgios (author)The impact of incidental emotions on decision making is well established. Incidental emotions can be differentiated on several appraisal dimensions, including certainty–uncertainty. The present research investigates the effect of certainty–uncertainty of incidental emotions on hedonic forecasting. The results of four experimental studies...journal article 2020
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Calvel, Alexia (author), Werner, Micha (author), van den Homberg, Marc (author), Cabrera Flamini, Andrés (author), Streefkerk, I.N. (author), Mittal, Neha (author), Whitfield, Stephen (author), Langton Vanya, Charles (author), Boyce, Clement (author)Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts....journal article 2020
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Arends, Eric Lacoa (author), Watson, S.J. (author), Basu, S. (author), Cheneka, B.R. (author)A series of probabilistic models were bench-marked during the European Energy Markets forecasting Competition 2020 to assess their relative accuracy in predicting aggregated Swedish wind power generation using as input historic weather forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. In this paper, we report the results of one of these...conference paper 2020
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Ghotge, R. (author), Snow, Yitzi (author), Safaei Farahani, S. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), van Wijk, A.J.M. (author)Scheduled charging offers the potential for electric vehicles (EVs) to use renewable energy more efficiently, lowering costs and improving the stability of the electricity grid. Many studies related to EV charge scheduling found in the literature assume perfect or highly accurate knowledge of energy demand for EVs expected to arrive after the...journal article 2020
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McAllister, Pat (author), Nase, I. (author)This study updates and expands upon the existing work on the accuracy of the IPF’s Consensus Forecasts. The paper evaluates the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance. It also assesses the accuracy of implied yield forecasts and concludes that failure in yield forecasting is the main source of...journal article 2020
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Emmanouil, Stergios (author), Aguilar, Sandra Gaytan (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Schouten, Jan Joost (author)Installation and maintenance strategies regarding offshore wind farm operations involve extensive logistics. The main focus is the right temporal and spatial placement of personnel and equipment, while taking into account forecasted meteorological and ocean conditions. For these operations to be successful, weather windows characterized by...journal article 2020
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Steinert, S. (author), Roeser, S. (author)Responsible innovation and ethics of technology increasingly take emotions into consideration. Yet, there are still some crucial aspects of emotions that have not been addressed in the literature. In order to close this gap, we introduce these neglected aspects and discusses their theoretical and practical implications. We will zoom in on the...journal article 2020
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Shen, Qiaomu (author), Wu, Yanhong (author), Jiang, Yuzhe (author), Zeng, Wei (author), Lau, Alexis K.H. (author), Vilanova Bartroli, A. (author), Qu, Huamin (author)Recent attempts at utilizing visual analytics to interpret Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) mainly focus on natural language processing (NLP) tasks that take symbolic sequences as input. However, many real-world problems like environment pollution forecasting apply RNNs on sequences of multi-dimensional data where each dimension represents an...conference paper 2020
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Natali, A. (author), Isufi, E. (author), Leus, G.J.T. (author)The forecasting of multi-variate time processes through graph-based techniques has recently been addressed under the graph signal processing framework. However, problems in the representation and the processing arise when each time series carries a vector of quantities rather than a scalar one. To tackle this issue, we devise a new framework and...conference paper 2020
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Xenochristou, Maria (author), Kapelan, Z. (author)Water demand forecasting is an essential task for water utilities, with increasing importance due to future societal and environmental changes. This paper suggests a new methodology for water demand forecasting, based on model stacking and bias correction that predicts daily demands for groups of ~120 properties. This methodology is compared...journal article 2020
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Huyghues-Beaufond, Nathalie (author), Tindemans, Simon H. (author), Falugi, Paola (author), Sun, Mingyang (author), Strbac, Goran (author)Distribution networks are undergoing fundamental changes at medium voltage level. To support growing planning and control decision-making, the need for large numbers of short-term load forecasts has emerged. Data-driven modelling of medium voltage feeders can be affected by (1) data quality issues, namely, large gross errors and missing...journal article 2020
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Cooke, R.M. (author), Marti, Deniz (author), Mazzuchi, Thomas (author)Post-2006 expert judgment data has been extended to 530 experts assessing 580 calibration variables from their fields. New analysis shows that point predictions as medians of combined expert distributions outperform combined medians, and medians of performance weighted combinations outperform medians of equal weighted combinations. Relative...journal article 2020
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Allaerts, D.J.N. (author), Quon, Eliot (author), Draxl, Caroline (author), Churchfield, Matthew (author)Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal...journal article 2020