Quantifying the cascading effects of passenger delays

Delays in transport networks has adverse implications for infrastructure and service managers as well as travellers. While it is widely acknowledged that delays occurring across the transport networks may be related, there are is lack of knowledge on the underlying properties of these relations and means for quantifying them. To this end, we...

Levee system reliability modeling: The length effect and Bayesian updating

In levee system reliability, the length effect is the term given to the phenomenon that the longer the levee, the higher the probability that it will have a weak spot and fail. Quantitatively, it is the ratio of the segment failure probability to the cross-sectional failure probability. The literature is lacking in methods to calculate the...

Uncertainty Tracking and Geotechnical Reliability Updating Using Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks are proposed as a tool to integrate reliability and influential variables relating to the slope stability of an idealized embankment. The site investigation (extent) and slope geometry, as well as the material properties and their spatial variability, are considered within a Bayesian network. The random finite element method ...

Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of industrial plants have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of such accidents compared to those triggered by earthquakes, high winds, and lightnings. The large amount of oil spillage due to floods triggered by the Hurricanes Katrina and...