Development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands

Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

Report (2015)
Department
Transport & Planning (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2015 The Author(s)
Development Scenarios The Netherlands Automated vehicles Implications
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Published Date

24-04-2015

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ISSN:

2212-0491

Faculty

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Department

Transport & Planning

Abstract

This study identified through scenario analysis plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and estimated potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV …in standby, AV …in bloom, AV …in demand, AV …in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate market rapidly after their introduction. Complexity of urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Development of automated vehicles is expected to have implications on mobility in all scenarios. Hence, the Dutch government is expected to take measures (e.g., travel demand management) to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities in three out of the four scenarios.