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What will carbon dioxide removal look like in the Netherlands?
A Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway approach
The European Union is not currently on track to meet its climate mitigation targets, and emissions reductions alone are unlikely to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will therefore be required to address residual emissions and potentially compensate for historical emissions. However, both CDR technologies and the policy frameworks governing them remain at an early stage of development, creating uncertainty regarding future deployment pathways.
The diversity of available CDR methods, combined with unresolved questions surrounding permanence, funding mechanisms, and governance, complicates the development of effective policy. While the Netherlands has published a roadmap outlining possible CDR developments to 2050, uncertainties remain regarding which policy interventions will be required and how they should adapt over time.
This thesis examines the research question: What contribution can Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) make to the development of carbon dioxide removal in the Netherlands? DAPP was originally developed to deal with adaptation decision-making within water systems and has not previously been used for the CDR sector. Therefore, DAPP was applied to the Dutch CDR sector to assess its usefulness as a policy-support tool. Pathways were developed iteratively using academic literature and policy documents and subsequently evaluated through stakeholder interviews representing a range of perspectives within the Dutch CDR sector. Four pathway maps were constructed based on two scenario dimensions: free market versus mandated CDR and the eligibility of permanent CDR only versus both permanent and temporary removals.
The interviews highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the definition of permanence and the role of temporary removals. Stakeholders suggested that temporary removals may contribute to addressing short-term emissions, although implementation mechanisms remain unclear. Discussions also emphasised the need for additional financial incentives and regulatory space for setting up pilot projects as potential drivers of CDR deployment.
The DAPP approach proved valuable for identifying uncertainties, constraints, trade-offs, and stakeholder perspectives; however, the resulting pathway maps were less effective in supporting detailed policy analysis or the development of concrete policy measures. Policymakers should prioritise defining residual emissions, clarifying the role of temporary removals, and assessing funding or mandate-based mechanisms to support CDR deployment. Future policy should also consider competition for CCS storage capacity and continue supporting emerging technologies. Further research could strengthen the DAPP approach by exploring pathway development at a higher level of aggregation, where CDR is considered alongside mitigation measures, or an approach focusing on specific CDR methods.
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The diversity of available CDR methods, combined with unresolved questions surrounding permanence, funding mechanisms, and governance, complicates the development of effective policy. While the Netherlands has published a roadmap outlining possible CDR developments to 2050, uncertainties remain regarding which policy interventions will be required and how they should adapt over time.
This thesis examines the research question: What contribution can Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) make to the development of carbon dioxide removal in the Netherlands? DAPP was originally developed to deal with adaptation decision-making within water systems and has not previously been used for the CDR sector. Therefore, DAPP was applied to the Dutch CDR sector to assess its usefulness as a policy-support tool. Pathways were developed iteratively using academic literature and policy documents and subsequently evaluated through stakeholder interviews representing a range of perspectives within the Dutch CDR sector. Four pathway maps were constructed based on two scenario dimensions: free market versus mandated CDR and the eligibility of permanent CDR only versus both permanent and temporary removals.
The interviews highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the definition of permanence and the role of temporary removals. Stakeholders suggested that temporary removals may contribute to addressing short-term emissions, although implementation mechanisms remain unclear. Discussions also emphasised the need for additional financial incentives and regulatory space for setting up pilot projects as potential drivers of CDR deployment.
The DAPP approach proved valuable for identifying uncertainties, constraints, trade-offs, and stakeholder perspectives; however, the resulting pathway maps were less effective in supporting detailed policy analysis or the development of concrete policy measures. Policymakers should prioritise defining residual emissions, clarifying the role of temporary removals, and assessing funding or mandate-based mechanisms to support CDR deployment. Future policy should also consider competition for CCS storage capacity and continue supporting emerging technologies. Further research could strengthen the DAPP approach by exploring pathway development at a higher level of aggregation, where CDR is considered alongside mitigation measures, or an approach focusing on specific CDR methods.
...
The European Union is not currently on track to meet its climate mitigation targets, and emissions reductions alone are unlikely to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will therefore be required to address residual emissions and potentially compensate for historical emissions. However, both CDR technologies and the policy frameworks governing them remain at an early stage of development, creating uncertainty regarding future deployment pathways.
The diversity of available CDR methods, combined with unresolved questions surrounding permanence, funding mechanisms, and governance, complicates the development of effective policy. While the Netherlands has published a roadmap outlining possible CDR developments to 2050, uncertainties remain regarding which policy interventions will be required and how they should adapt over time.
This thesis examines the research question: What contribution can Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) make to the development of carbon dioxide removal in the Netherlands? DAPP was originally developed to deal with adaptation decision-making within water systems and has not previously been used for the CDR sector. Therefore, DAPP was applied to the Dutch CDR sector to assess its usefulness as a policy-support tool. Pathways were developed iteratively using academic literature and policy documents and subsequently evaluated through stakeholder interviews representing a range of perspectives within the Dutch CDR sector. Four pathway maps were constructed based on two scenario dimensions: free market versus mandated CDR and the eligibility of permanent CDR only versus both permanent and temporary removals.
The interviews highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the definition of permanence and the role of temporary removals. Stakeholders suggested that temporary removals may contribute to addressing short-term emissions, although implementation mechanisms remain unclear. Discussions also emphasised the need for additional financial incentives and regulatory space for setting up pilot projects as potential drivers of CDR deployment.
The DAPP approach proved valuable for identifying uncertainties, constraints, trade-offs, and stakeholder perspectives; however, the resulting pathway maps were less effective in supporting detailed policy analysis or the development of concrete policy measures. Policymakers should prioritise defining residual emissions, clarifying the role of temporary removals, and assessing funding or mandate-based mechanisms to support CDR deployment. Future policy should also consider competition for CCS storage capacity and continue supporting emerging technologies. Further research could strengthen the DAPP approach by exploring pathway development at a higher level of aggregation, where CDR is considered alongside mitigation measures, or an approach focusing on specific CDR methods.
The diversity of available CDR methods, combined with unresolved questions surrounding permanence, funding mechanisms, and governance, complicates the development of effective policy. While the Netherlands has published a roadmap outlining possible CDR developments to 2050, uncertainties remain regarding which policy interventions will be required and how they should adapt over time.
This thesis examines the research question: What contribution can Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) make to the development of carbon dioxide removal in the Netherlands? DAPP was originally developed to deal with adaptation decision-making within water systems and has not previously been used for the CDR sector. Therefore, DAPP was applied to the Dutch CDR sector to assess its usefulness as a policy-support tool. Pathways were developed iteratively using academic literature and policy documents and subsequently evaluated through stakeholder interviews representing a range of perspectives within the Dutch CDR sector. Four pathway maps were constructed based on two scenario dimensions: free market versus mandated CDR and the eligibility of permanent CDR only versus both permanent and temporary removals.
The interviews highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the definition of permanence and the role of temporary removals. Stakeholders suggested that temporary removals may contribute to addressing short-term emissions, although implementation mechanisms remain unclear. Discussions also emphasised the need for additional financial incentives and regulatory space for setting up pilot projects as potential drivers of CDR deployment.
The DAPP approach proved valuable for identifying uncertainties, constraints, trade-offs, and stakeholder perspectives; however, the resulting pathway maps were less effective in supporting detailed policy analysis or the development of concrete policy measures. Policymakers should prioritise defining residual emissions, clarifying the role of temporary removals, and assessing funding or mandate-based mechanisms to support CDR deployment. Future policy should also consider competition for CCS storage capacity and continue supporting emerging technologies. Further research could strengthen the DAPP approach by exploring pathway development at a higher level of aggregation, where CDR is considered alongside mitigation measures, or an approach focusing on specific CDR methods.
The recent growth in data availability in football has increased the risk of incorrect use of data-driven models, making guidelines on their validation and application necessary. The Expected Threat (xT) model is an accessible option for football organisations that start building in-house methods, yet little is known about how to assess its quality. The aim of this study is twofold: to examine how the model quality depends on the number of game states and the number of training points, and to translate these results into guidelines for constructing and applying the model. Using the Markov chain underlying the model, we perform theoretical analyses and simulations to study the estimation error. These show that the estimation error is approximately lognormal for a given number of training points and game states. Additionally, we combine the simulations with expert consultation to establish the estimation error beyond which player evaluations based on the Expected Threat model become unreliable for scouting applications. From this, we derive rules of thumb to ensure the quality of an Expected Threat model before application, and we illustrate through an example how a validated model can be applied in practice. Because the approach generalises to Expected Possession Value models, this paper illustrates a framework to systematically quantify model quality, despite the ground truth being unobservable in football analytics.
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The recent growth in data availability in football has increased the risk of incorrect use of data-driven models, making guidelines on their validation and application necessary. The Expected Threat (xT) model is an accessible option for football organisations that start building in-house methods, yet little is known about how to assess its quality. The aim of this study is twofold: to examine how the model quality depends on the number of game states and the number of training points, and to translate these results into guidelines for constructing and applying the model. Using the Markov chain underlying the model, we perform theoretical analyses and simulations to study the estimation error. These show that the estimation error is approximately lognormal for a given number of training points and game states. Additionally, we combine the simulations with expert consultation to establish the estimation error beyond which player evaluations based on the Expected Threat model become unreliable for scouting applications. From this, we derive rules of thumb to ensure the quality of an Expected Threat model before application, and we illustrate through an example how a validated model can be applied in practice. Because the approach generalises to Expected Possession Value models, this paper illustrates a framework to systematically quantify model quality, despite the ground truth being unobservable in football analytics.
In this talk, I will highlight our recent advancement in realizing terahertz photonic devices and electro-optic quantum transducers on a nonlinear integrated photonic platform.
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In this talk, I will highlight our recent advancement in realizing terahertz photonic devices and electro-optic quantum transducers on a nonlinear integrated photonic platform.
Nonlinear fractional-periodic boundary value problems with Hilfer fractional derivative
Existence and numerical approximations of solutions
We prove conditions for existence of analytical solutions for boundary value problems with the Hilfer fractional derivative, generalizing the commonly used Riemann-Liouville and Caputo operators. The boundary values, referred to in this paper as fractional-periodic, are fractional integral conditions generalizing recurrent solution values for the non-Caputo case of the Hilfer fractional derivative. Analytical solutions to the studied problem are obtained using a perturbation of the corresponding initial value problem with enforced boundary conditions. In general, solutions to the boundary value problem are singular for t ↓0. To overcome this singularity, we construct a sequence of converging solutions in a weighted continuous function space. We present a Bernstein spline-based implementation to numerically approximate solutions. We prove convergence of the numerical method, providing convergence criteria and asymptotic convergence rates. Numerical examples show empirical convergence results corresponding with the theoretical bounds. Moreover, the method is able to approximate the singular behavior of solutions and is demonstrated to converge for nonlinear problems. Finally, we apply a grid search to obtain correspondence to the original, non-perturbed system.
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We prove conditions for existence of analytical solutions for boundary value problems with the Hilfer fractional derivative, generalizing the commonly used Riemann-Liouville and Caputo operators. The boundary values, referred to in this paper as fractional-periodic, are fractional integral conditions generalizing recurrent solution values for the non-Caputo case of the Hilfer fractional derivative. Analytical solutions to the studied problem are obtained using a perturbation of the corresponding initial value problem with enforced boundary conditions. In general, solutions to the boundary value problem are singular for t ↓0. To overcome this singularity, we construct a sequence of converging solutions in a weighted continuous function space. We present a Bernstein spline-based implementation to numerically approximate solutions. We prove convergence of the numerical method, providing convergence criteria and asymptotic convergence rates. Numerical examples show empirical convergence results corresponding with the theoretical bounds. Moreover, the method is able to approximate the singular behavior of solutions and is demonstrated to converge for nonlinear problems. Finally, we apply a grid search to obtain correspondence to the original, non-perturbed system.