Investigating the Effects of Uncertainties Associated with the Unconventional Gas Development in the Netherlands

Conference paper (2012)
Department
Multi Actor Systems (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: Creative Commons BY NC ND
Natural gas System dynamics Uncertainty Exploratory modeling and analysis Unconventional gas
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Published Date

18-06-2012

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Source:

CESUN 2012: 3rd International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, 18-20 June 2012

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Abstract

The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates, unconventional gas development in the Netherlands is believed to be highly challenging, especially due to the technical, economic and societal uncertainties such as geological characteristics, costs, prices and public acceptance. Hence, whether the unconventional gas production can significantly contribute to the gas supply or not in this deeply uncertain environment rises as an important question. In this study, this question is investigated by developing a system dynamics simulation model for the unconventional gas development, and using this model for the exploration of future possibilities based on a large number of scenarios. Also, the model is used to assess the effectiveness of price and supply regulation policies under uncertainty. In most of the scenarios, the production rate is observed to be very low, indicating a negligible contribution to the total gas supply. The model can be used to test several other policy alternatives, and the effects of uncertainties in the model structure itself can be investigated by developing different model structures.

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