Effects of global long term scenarios on container throughput in the port of Rotterdam

Abstract

In the past decades there has been a steep increase in global trade. The current crises however emphasize that trends can change quickly and have a lasting effect on the economy. Due to their large, long term investments, ports in particular need a good understanding of the future state of transport and logistics systems. Scenario based modeling can assist in doing this. This thesis presents three distinctive scenarios, the modeling approach and the results. Each scenario has a different geographical orientation: global, regional and local. The scenario of ‘Globalization under Chinese influence’ shows a world where globalization continues with a new market leader being China. ‘Regional production’ characterizes a market driven world with production closer to the market and more flexible supply chains. Finally, ‘Local for Local’ shows what the effects are of a scenario where local production and trade prevails and global trade is dominated by raw materials. A case study is applied to determine the effects of the scenarios on the container throughput in the Port of Rotterdam, a modelling approach is applied. Trade flows are estimated using a growth model based on GDP and gravity. This classical but effective method was applied to predict global trade between all countries. The transportation model that was used has both a global scope as well as a detailed multi-modal hinterland for Europe.