Title
Quantification of the risk reduction potential of autonomous navigation
Author
de Vos, J. (TU Delft Ship Design, Production and Operations) 
Pruyn, J.F.J. (TU Delft Ship Design, Production and Operations)
Hekkenberg, R.G. (TU Delft Ship Design, Production and Operations)
Date
2022
Abstract
Autonomous ships have become a topic of interest for an increasing number of researchers over the last few years. Most of the research that is being performed focuses on autonomous navigation. An important driver for this research is the belief that autonomous navigation will increase safety at sea. In order to evaluate the possible safety benefit of autonomous navigation, it is essential to have an understanding of the risk associated with navigation-related accidents. In this paper, a monetary quantification of the risk associated with navigation-related accidents will be presented, to support designers in determining the acceptable costs of an autonomous navigation system.. It is the intention to provide order-of-magnitude figures for the annual risk for different ship types and sizes. Although it is acknowledged that the analysis comes with uncertainties, the results provide an overview contribution that different damage cases make to the overall risk per year, associated with navigation-related accidents. It is found that the annual risk can be expected to be between €1.5 billion and €2.5 billion, or a €45k to €75k risk per vessel per year. Consequently, the maximum annual safety benefit of autonomous navigation is equal to this figure if autonomous navigation will be able to prevent all navigation-related accidents.
Subject
Autonomous Navigation
Autonomy benefits
Navigation-related accidents
Risk analysis
Safety at sea
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2d425be6-dd41-40ae-930d-48e47b0709e3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5957/IMDC-2022-218
Embargo date
2023-07-01
Event
SNAME 14th International Marine Design Conference, IMDC 2022, 2022-06-26 → 2022-06-30, Vancouver, Canada
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
conference paper
Rights
© 2022 J. de Vos, J.F.J. Pruyn, R.G. Hekkenberg