Agent-Based Simulation of West Asian Urban Dynamics: Impact of Refugees

Agent-Based Simulation of West Asian Urban Dynamics: Impact of Refugees

Termos, Ali (American University in Bulgaria)
Picascia, Stefano (University of Glasgow)
Yorke-Smith, N. (TU Delft Algorithmics; American University of Beirut)

2021

Rapid international migration of significant populations generates profound implications for countries in West Asia, Europe, and other regions. The motivation of this work is to develop an agent-based model (ABM) to capture the existence of such migrant and refugee flows, and to explore the effects of these flows on urban dynamics. Advances in agent-based modelling have led to theoretically-grounded spatial agent models of urban dynamics, capturing the dynamics of population, property prices, and regeneration. In this article we leverage such an extant agent-based model founded on the rent-gap theory, as a lens to study the effect of sizeable refugee migration upon a capital city in West Asia. In order to calibrate and validate the simulation model we construct indices for housing prices and other factors. Results from the model, implemented in NetLogo, show the impact of migration shock on the housing market, and identify the relative efficacy of housing intervention policies. Our work progresses towards a tool for policy makers asking what-if questions about the urban environment in the context of migration.

Rent-Gap Theory
Migration
Agent-Based Modelling
Urban Dynamics
Housing
Lebanon
Social Simulation
OA-Fund TU Delft

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:37af31c4-1c84-4815-b393-3fbcb3b2682a

https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4472

1460-7425

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24 (1), 1-25

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 Ali Termos, Stefano Picascia, N. Yorke-Smith