Print Email Facebook Twitter Selecting technologies in aircraft conceptual design using probabilistic inversion Title Selecting technologies in aircraft conceptual design using probabilistic inversion Author Roelofs, M.N. (TU Delft Flight Performance and Propulsion) Kurowicka, D. (TU Delft Applied Probability) Vos, Roelof (TU Delft Flight Performance and Propulsion) Date 2021 Abstract Technology forecasting is an essential starting point for conceptual design of any complex engineering system. In fact, many research projects are focused on developing a small set of promising technologies to a suitable readiness level. However, selecting a set of technologies from a larger pool is a nontrivial task, opposed by uncertainty and subjective tradeoffs. This paper proposes a probabilistic method to represent technologies and quantify their effects, while accounting for uncertainty. Using probabilistic inversion, technologies can be selected from a larger set to meet a certain combination of requirements. Several test cases illustrate the method and how it may be used in conceptual design projects. It is concluded that probabilistic inversion enables answering technology development and selection queries, which would be challenging to answer with traditional deterministic approaches, or purely forward uncertainty propagation approaches. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3c8074b1-24fd-4e34-9726-69f76575ac22 DOI https://doi.org/10.2514/1.C035985 ISSN 0021-8669 Source Journal of Aircraft: devoted to aeronautical science and technology, 58 (2), 347-362 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2021 M.N. Roelofs, D. Kurowicka, Roelof Vos Files PDF 1.c035985.pdf 2.88 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:3c8074b1-24fd-4e34-9726-69f76575ac22/datastream/OBJ/view