The geography of container port choice: modelling the impact of hinterland changes on port choice

Abstract

European container ports compete in partially overlapping hinterland areas. The objective of this study is to model port choice and obtain insight into port choice decisions for European container imports from Asia. The importance of port choice factors and their impact on port market shares in the hinterland were investigated. Furthermore, sensitivity of the model in predicting the impact of increasing fuel prices on port hinterlands was tested. Containerised imports of 231 European mainland regions were compiled, based on shipping data, port statistics, modal split and gross regional products. Using literature sources, 11 port choice factors were selected; five of these were found to be statistically significant. These factors and their respective weights were used as input for a logit port choice model to analyse container port imports for 31 ports; the most detailed model yet. A varying oil price scenario was used to show the application and sensitivity of the model. Changing oil prices were found to have an impact on modal split and on the average hinterland transport distance.