Preliminary reliability analysis of flood defences in the pilot site ‚German Bight Coast’

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Published Date

24-06-2009

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T07-06-01

Abstract

This report describes the flood defence structures of the pilot site ‘German Bight Coast’ and the overall probability of failure of all flood defences in the area. First, the flood prone area is briefly described as follows: ? the flood prone area ? the failures observed in the past ? an overview of all defence structures ? the flood defence structures in detail together with their potential failure modes The report then continues to describe the algorithm how the flood defences are split into various sections. For each section the probability of failure is then calculated using level II and III methods. From this, the overall failure probability Pf is calculated using a fault tree approach. The overall purpose of this report is to provide a first idea on the failure probability calculations of the flood defences in the pilot site. This information will identify the gaps in knowledge (e.g. failure modes) and incomplete procedures to calculate Pf. Results will be fed into Theme 1 to improve understanding and knowledge where identified necessary.

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