The assessment of flood mitigation measures applied in Cartagena de Indias

Abstract

Urban areas of coastal cities are increasingly susceptible to the consequences of climate change. In particular, the threat of increasing floods due to sea level rise and heavier rainfall is growing. Cartagena de Indias in Colombia is such a coastal city, where flooding is a significant issue, with floods becoming more frequent in recent decades. Arcadis, together with the ConAgua consortium, is currently investigating and designing mitigation strategies for the city’s water-related issues. The thesis focuses on defining and quantifying the sources of urban flood problems and assessing the impact of potential mitigation measures for reducing these flooding problems.

The study consists of four parts:
1. Identifying the main causes of floods using a data analysis;
2. Quantifying these findings with a numerical D-Hydro model;
3. Investigating suitable kind of mitigation measures and quantifying the impact of the best feasible mitigation options;
4. Evaluating the investigated mitigation options based on several criteria with the help of a multicriteria analysis.
Parts 1 and 2 focus on understanding the system. Parts 3 and 4 of the study focus on finding the best option to reduce floods.

The data analysis allows the development of a system description identifying the main causes of flooding. The analysis reveals that the limited capacity of the drainage system, high topographic variations, and extreme rainfall are the main causes of flooding in Cartagena. Extreme rainfall flows quickly from steep upstream areas to milder slope lower-lying areas, particularly those at the edge of the Ciénaga de la Virgen. It is hypothesised that downstream water level plays a role in the accumulation of runoff water, thereby influencing the frequency and intensity of floods in the neighbourhoods at the southern edge of the Ciénaga de la Virgen, especially with a relative sea level increase of approximately half a meter factored in. This hypothesis is checked by quantifying the impact of different scenarios with a numerical model.

A numerical D-Hydro model is used to quantify the impact of different meteorological conditions and downstream water levels on floods. The model’s simulation results show that rainfall intensity is a more dominant factor in flood generation than downstream water levels. Even with a return period of two years, rainfall causes significant flooding of almost 25% in the study area. The model also indicates an increasing influence of tidal conditions due to relative sea level rise. Still, the increased influence is mainly visible in the borders of the Ciénaga de la Virgen with minimal residential impact. These conclusions highlight the need for mitigation efforts to focus primarily on improving the areas influenced by the rainfall, especially for short return period rainfall events.

Various flood mitigation measures are considered for the southern border of the Ciénaga de la Virgen to reduce floods caused by the dominant intense rainfall. Wetland creation and evaporation measures are ruled out due to the dominant influence of rainfall-induced floods and the inability to prevent floods caused by extreme rainfall events respectively. After investigating the scale required, considering feasibility, the three types of measures that are converted into mitigation options are:
• Mitigation Option 1: Increasing channel dimensions,
• Mitigation Option 2: Increasing infiltration,
• Mitigation Option 3: Constructing retention areas.
These mitigation options are assessed for their impact on reducing flooded areas and flood levels. The three mitigation options are evaluated to recommend the best-preferred mitigation design. This evaluation employs a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)...