Vulnerability assessment and participatory modeling

Abstract

Incidence of strong typhoons, threatened small islands to sea level rise and storm surges and inundation of low lying areas to flooding are just a few of possible disasters in the Philippines as identified by climatologists and policy makers within the next 10 years. The most vulnerable regions are in the Central Visayan provinces. Talisay City in the central province of Cebu, with its coastal zone is always buffeted by strong waves during southwest monsoon season ( June-October ) affecting three-four communities and within the last twenty years had also experienced a major flooding from its Mananga River. Its varied topography from steep slopes to low-lying and constantly flooded coastal barangays represents a very unique characteristic making it susceptible to flooding and landslides. The study assessed and determined natural and man-made hazards of Talisay City, Cebu through participatory approaches and developed a modeling for disaster risk reduction management. Specifically, it identified and determined natural and man-made hazards of the area and identified critical factors affecting these vulnerabilities Secondly, it developed a scenario-building program which can be used in disaster risk management and test out this program in participatory disaster risk management exercises with different stakeholders. It used a combination of participatory approaches in disaster risk reduction among stakeholders like GIS-assisted vulnerability index mapping and participatory mapping. It enabled the user to improve the forecasting of future events and their impacts, particularly those where the disaster management actions might be affected by changing environmental conditions. The GIS-assisted modeling of disaster risk management was applied with critical factors such as rainfall erosivity index, soil erodibility, slope length factor, slope gradient, cover factor, erosion control and other factors. Vulnerability Index mapping was maximally used in finalizing the disaster risk management of Talisay City. Materials developed like maps, scenario or possible development options facilitated group decision-making and activity implementation